Read on Twitter
A little thread on CERB and the prospects for false claims....
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We have all heard or read the anecdotes about someone& #39;s niece or cousin or friend who claimed CERB while not actually being eligible.
These & #39;fraud& #39; stories are leading some to denigrate the great good that CERB is doing for those who have seen large income losses.
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These & #39;fraud& #39; stories are leading some to denigrate the great good that CERB is doing for those who have seen large income losses.
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With today& #39;s update of the admin data on CERB (and thanks to the feds for putting this online now!), we now see that 7.12M Canadians are on CERB.
Some are worrying about & #39;fraud.& #39; Well....
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https://www.canada.ca/en/services/benefits/ei/claims-report.html">https://www.canada.ca/en/servic...
Some are worrying about & #39;fraud.& #39; Well....
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https://www.canada.ca/en/services/benefits/ei/claims-report.html">https://www.canada.ca/en/servic...
How much & #39;fraud& #39; has their been among the 7.12M CERB applicants?
Friday May 8th will give us a chance to check. Why? On May 8th we get the Labour Force Survey for April.
We can compare the headcount of employment drop and furloughed to the CERB #.
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https://www150.statcan.gc.ca/n1/dai-quo/cal1-eng.htm">https://www150.statcan.gc.ca/n1/dai-qu...
Friday May 8th will give us a chance to check. Why? On May 8th we get the Labour Force Survey for April.
We can compare the headcount of employment drop and furloughed to the CERB #.
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https://www150.statcan.gc.ca/n1/dai-quo/cal1-eng.htm">https://www150.statcan.gc.ca/n1/dai-qu...
So, when the April LFS is released on May 8th, we can compare the 7.12M CERB headcount to the actual number of people who have been laid off/furloughed.
My *guess* is that the laid off/furloughed headcount will be well north of 6M, suggesting & #39;fraud& #39; is really not rampant.
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My *guess* is that the laid off/furloughed headcount will be well north of 6M, suggesting & #39;fraud& #39; is really not rampant.
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What& #39;s your guess? What proportion of CERB& #39;s 7M recipients will be accounted for by layoffs/furloughs in the April LFS? (The higher the %age, the lower the & #39;fraud& #39;.)
Note that I am using & #39;fraud& #39; here loosely to capture different reasons for eligibility attestations that ex-post turn out to be false.
* Good faith errors
* Eligibility rules changes
* Jean Valjean / Les Miserables bread-taking reasons
* outright dishonest attestations.
* Good faith errors
* Eligibility rules changes
* Jean Valjean / Les Miserables bread-taking reasons
* outright dishonest attestations.
From @BrendonBernard_ an important note. When the April LFS was in the field, the number of CERB recipients was 6.7M. So, that& #39;s the proper denominator for the comparison to the April LFS. https://twitter.com/BrendonBernard_/status/1252276914842226693">https://twitter.com/BrendonBe...
See, this is the *exact* sentiment I& #39;m pushing back against. The idea that there is some & #39;fraud& #39; is used to argue that we shouldn& #39;t have made quick payments on the & #39;trust but verify& #39; model.
When we see the April LFS, we will get a sense of this. https://twitter.com/toshcyoung/status/1253752764468883458">https://twitter.com/toshcyoun...
When we see the April LFS, we will get a sense of this. https://twitter.com/toshcyoung/status/1253752764468883458">https://twitter.com/toshcyoun...
