This is the exactly the sort of reason why it& #39;s so hard to figure out what the national political environment is going to look like in November https://twitter.com/davidmwessel/status/1253734063153840128?s=20">https://twitter.com/davidmwes...

This would be so tough because it really pushes the limits of two general assumptions about the role of the economy :
--Voters are fairly myopic, and focused on the most recent events
--Rate of change matters far more than the absolute state of the economy

Now, I don& #39;t think you& #39;d find anyone who argues that the only thing that matters is the rate of growth over the last month.
But it is a tough case if you have a surging economy, over a short period, that& #39;s still bad in absolute terms. It& #39;s hard to know what that would feel like

It& #39;s not simply GDP matters and unemployment doesn& #39;t. It& #39;s that the rate of change matters. You can feel optimistic if you& #39;re convinced things are getting better, even if they& #39;re bad in absolute terms (FDR & #39;36, as just one ex) https://twitter.com/CHeathWFTV/status/1253747289212039170?s=20">https://twitter.com/CHeathWFT...

But look, I& #39;m not at all contending that this is sure to be good for Trump! I& #39;m just saying this is a highly sensitive and difficult to evaluate situation if you have a quick V-type recovery right ahead of an election. It could be a disaster for Trump; it might not be so bad.

And that& #39;s before you consider the uncertainty in the forecast itself, which can& #39;t possibly be particularly confident about what& #39;s going to happen by Q3 given all of the external factors