Lots of serosurveys trickling out, some with more heat than light. Let’s not miss the forest for the trees. A thread. 1/

Whether seroprevalence is 2% or 3% is mostly of academic interest. What’s clear is that the notion that we all got infected and didn’t know it and now we are near herd immunity is completely unrealistic. Our communities are still almost completely susceptible. 2/

Yes, the fatality risk is lower than observed. I made this point in January, as did many others. 3/ https://twitter.com/cmyeaton/status/1220016210365956102

But it’s excruciatingly clear that this virus is many times worse than influenza and capable of overwhelming health systems. Ask NYC or Lombardi if they care what the infection fatality risk is. 4/

Finally, doing careful science is tricky even in the best of times. It usually takes teams of experts and peer reviewers to get a good piece of work over the finish line. In a crisis, the normal process is rushed or skipped and it can hurt quality. 5/ https://twitter.com/nataliexdean/status/1251309217215942656

New findings should be added to the weight of evidence. Science is an accumulation of knowledge. Rarely are there blockbuster findings that completely change our understanding. So next time you see a claim that seems too clever, it probably is. 6/

If you want to know more about serology for Covid, my colleagues at @JHSPH_CHS released an important, comprehensive report on serology today. Lead authors @ggronvall and @ndconnell 7/7 https://www.centerforhealthsecurity.org/our-work/publications/developing-a-national-strategy-for-serology-antibody-testing-in-the-US