If experts tell you something is unknowable, don’t keep asking new people until you get a straight answer. Because in doing so you haven’t found the truth, you have found someone who wants your ear. 1/

The most common question I am asked is when this will all be over. No really, when will we be able to do xyz? There is no way of knowing. There are too many possible futures, and too few hints. 2/

But still, decisions need to be made. I get that. So what can decision makers expect from a good advisor in this setting of enormous uncertainty? Dialogue and honesty. I like how @mlipsitch and @BillHanage think about it. 3/ https://blogs.scientificamerican.com/observations/how-to-report-on-the-covid-19-outbreak-responsibly/

They say there are things we know to be true, things we think to be true, and opinions and speculation. I would add a fourth layer, things we definitely don’t know. A good advisor will spend as much time as necessary to walk through all four and explain which is which. 4/

There is a lot in that fourth category right now. Sometimes “we don’t know” really is the answer. We have never faced COVID-19 – or any pandemic like this – in modern times. We are having to live with uncertainty in really profound ways. It’s hard. 5/5