The "models were wrong!" complaint is silly. Without widespread testing early on, we had no choice but to do a national shutdown just to get down to 60k deaths. That said, there is a question now about how we move forward given the hospitalization/case rate and supplies.

It's likely that promotion of the early models helped ramp up medical supply production and distribution (both govt and private/volunteer). So the actual supply capabilities of hospitals (after this ramp-up) should help guide reopening process.

It's possible that hospitals can handle a somewhat larger reopening than earlier models predicted. BUT, that depends on locality. Vanderbilt U did a study for TN and still found HUGE risk to hospitals with early reopening. https://www.knoxnews.com/story/news/health/2020/04/10/vanderbilt-coronavirus-modeling-social-distancing-hospitalization-estimates/5127909002/

I don't know if the Vanderbilt study uses a similar methodology as the IMHE model. But it's something to watch for.

Here’s a good thread on that Vanderbilt study for Tennessee. https://twitter.com/brettkelman/status/1248746166277361670?s=21 https://twitter.com/brettkelman/status/1248746166277361670