We're going to start seeing a lot more Monday-morning quarterbacking like this as projections appear to fall. But this is a mathematical illusion. 1/ https://www.nationalreview.com/corner/coronavirus-pandemic-ihme-model-revisions-explanation/

Early uncertainties in epidemological modeling are strongly skewed to the right. As the model matures and uncertainty declines, the projections will appear to fall simply because the upper bound will fall far faster than the lower bound will rise. 2/

But the upper bound is more important than the mean! This is related to Taleb's discussion of absorbing barriers in finance -- you must take the worst-case scenario into effect, because you can't recover your stake if you're dead. 3/

The maxim here is: If you reacted appropriately, it will look like overreaction. 4/4

Disclaimer: What I said isn't quite right either; "upper bound" in particular is the wrong concept, but I didn't want to be here writing all day*. And the linked essay is otherwise decent. 5/4

*: I will be here writing all day, but not about this