Let's revisit the comparison between the United States and continental Western Europe, where the death toll reached 51k yesterday

So far, the US continues to track very closely alongside death and case growth in Western Europe, but perhaps two weeks behind. Western Europe daily deaths are holding pretty flat and haven't started to dip yet

This comparison has always interested me, but it's all the more interesting with models projecting a smaller number of deaths in the US, perhaps as low as 60k--which Western Europe is going to blow through. To happen, the US would need to get off of the Western Europe track ASAP

That is exactly what the IMHE model, for instance, assumes. This morning, it shows just over 60k US deaths, and shows the US daily death growth peaking in 3 days, before it did in Western Europe, and starting to decline well before it clearly has in Western Europe

I think it's super hard to model this stuff and I will not offer any opinion on whether it's likely or not. But the Western Europe comparison does some context to the projections, and it would be very fairly easy to tell, quite soon, which way we were heading