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On a day where the US had by far its largest daily deaths yet (+1965), and surpassed the estimated H1N1 pandemic total deaths (up to 12,835 deaths this evening), I& #39;ll use tonight& #39;s update for a more optimistic thread & some hope that we& #39;re nearing the peak in the US.
The number of daily new deaths is still rising in the US & globally, but # of new cases has plateaued. The daily new deaths are expected to lag behind new cases, accounting for the time between infection until symptoms show (2-14 days), hospitalization and ventilator use.
One obvious limiting factor for new cases is # of tests. We didn& #39;t see a continued exponential increase in new cases - because there was no continued exponential increase in testing. While we& #39;re definitely undercounting cases, the decrease in new hospitalizations is encouraging.
Elsewhere in the world, daily new deaths are decreasing in Italy & Spain, and appear to be flattening in France.
However, each country (and by extension US state) has its own curve. As the current outbreaks pass their peak, other countries (& states) are still worsening.
However, each country (and by extension US state) has its own curve. As the current outbreaks pass their peak, other countries (& states) are still worsening.
This is one reason why it& #39;s too soon to declare victory - it can still be brought back to former hotspots. When numbers are substantially down I hope we can cautiously get back to work, but the virus hasn& #39;t been eradicated. If we let our guard down we can easily get another wave.
