On a day where the US had by far its largest daily deaths yet (+1965), and surpassed the estimated H1N1 pandemic total deaths (up to 12,835 deaths this evening), I'll use tonight's update for a more optimistic thread & some hope that we're nearing the peak in the US.

The number of daily new deaths is still rising in the US & globally, but # of new cases has plateaued. The daily new deaths are expected to lag behind new cases, accounting for the time between infection until symptoms show (2-14 days), hospitalization and ventilator use.

One obvious limiting factor for new cases is # of tests. We didn't see a continued exponential increase in new cases - because there was no continued exponential increase in testing. While we're definitely undercounting cases, the decrease in new hospitalizations is encouraging.

Elsewhere in the world, daily new deaths are decreasing in Italy & Spain, and appear to be flattening in France.

However, each country (and by extension US state) has its own curve. As the current outbreaks pass their peak, other countries (& states) are still worsening.

This is one reason why it's too soon to declare victory - it can still be brought back to former hotspots. When numbers are substantially down I hope we can cautiously get back to work, but the virus hasn't been eradicated. If we let our guard down we can easily get another wave.

And because I'm sure this will come up MANY times, it should be emphasized that social distancing & stay at home orders work, and have worked. We're falling short of worst case scenarios because we took action. I can't even fathom how many deaths we'd be dealing with otherwise.

Lastly, I'm sure we're way undercounting COVID-19 cases. Early lack of testing, some states/countries only testing those hospitalized, people dying before they can get tests, etc. During H1N1, CDC published estimates of actual # of cases & deaths. Hoping that they do so here too.