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With the focus on possible good news over the last few days, let's step back and think about the the various measures of COVID and how they fit together, using my handy hand-drawn charts
You're used to seeing the charts of cases over time; that's top left. It's nice, but doesn't help you see 'bending the curve.' It will go up.
What we really want to do is 'bend the curve' on active cases/deaths. That curve *starts* to bend when there's a peak in new cases/deaths.
What we really want to do is 'bend the curve' on active cases/deaths. That curve *starts* to bend when there's a peak in new cases/deaths.
Here's what's actually happened in Lombardy.
They've actually leveled off their estimated active cases/system burden (here, deaths in last 14 days as a proxy since we don't have this IRL)
They've actually leveled off their estimated active cases/system burden (here, deaths in last 14 days as a proxy since we don't have this IRL)
I should note that this is a pretty meh-to-bad proxy. Deaths, sadly, actually relieve the health care system. It may make more sense when you use cases. But it's what we've got.
So here's the New York metro area heading into today, same charts. That hick-up on the bottom-left, the growth in daily deaths, is the good news everyone's talking about. When I look at this compared to Lombardy, I'm not really surprised that we had another jump in deaths today.
