A thread: An #economic perspective on bread based on little more than theory, personal observation, a total lack of real data, a several cups of tipsy nonsense. https://twitter.com/Jesse_Hirsch/status/1247179304154345473

People are being forced into sourdough production. I see three factors: A lack of commercially produced breads due to demand spikes, a lack of dry yeast packets due to demand spikes, and the extra hours of free time recovered from commuting that can be used for innovation.

Due to lack of spare time, acclimatization to commercial sliced leavened breads, and availability of dry yeast, consumers have been totally okay with inferior substitutes to sourdough.

We can safely assume that sourdough is the superior leavened bread, and all others are inferior substitutes.

This is not up for discussion.

In the California Republic, this is as much a core tenet of citizenship as it is our religion. It's also an immutable law of the universe.

The negative impact on commercial bakeries at the end of quarantine may have several contributing factors.

For one, the increase in home bakers and may result in an increase small commercial bakeries at the end of quarantine. This will clearly result in oversupply of hipster-esque "designer" or "boutique" bakeries, forcing out incumbents who are paying for overhead during quarantine.

Second, there may be a demand shock from people choosing to bake from home, once they discover the correct methods for baking. (Learning by doing.)

Third, large commercial bakers may see demand decrease because tastier breads can be made from home and boutique bakeries will be so common that prices for sourdough (the superior product) will be much lower (due to increased quantity).

As for agriculture, the demand for diverse, "heirloom" grains may increase. Demand for maize (corn) will likely remain stable for ethanol production (which closes s awful, by the way). Wheat may be displaced by other grains (like spelt) to create distinct sourdough products.

Demand for flours by home and smaller bakeries may increase, so mills may shift to producing smaller package sizes in higher quantities to meet demand.

This could be a boom for paper manufacturers who produce packaging for small packages of flour.

The increased demand for flour packaging will likely not make up for the decrease in printer paper demand, as large segments of the labor market transitions into either remote all-digital work or home baking.

If flour packaging cannot provide enough profit for papermakers, textiles may have a chance to take over by making cloth sacks of flour for small packages.

This may already be happening: Flour from a sack offers more "rustic" appeal for burgeoning small-batch boutique bakeries.

I haven't used more than one hashtag yet, so:
#sourdough #COVID19 #coronavirus #bread #economics #unemployment #Nonsense #fuckyourketodiet #nonketomarket #sourdoughcapitalism #CaliforniaSourdoughIsTheOneTrueBreadAndYourDissentingOpinionIsIrrelevant

The supply spike in boutique sourdough bakeries may have other consequences.

If we assume natural gas-fired ovens are used, natural gas consumption will go up, lessening the effects of carbon emission reduction that have been seen due to quarantine.

Cities may counteract this by requiring all new construction have electric appliances.

The truly carbon-conscious may link their @onepeloton bike's wheel to an alternator to either power a DC battery (to offset peak electric demand) or run a resistor in the oven directly.

Wood-fired ovens are another alternative, though they pose their own problems.

Demand for masonry materials that can handle oven temperatures may be higher due to an increase in home-pizza chefs. Additionally, some percentage of pizza bakers may also be competitors to the home bakers, thus further driving down prices for sourdough.

On top of this, wood fires produce a lot of emissions. Carbon emissions are higher than that of an ideal (zero-leak) natural gas distribution system. There is also the addition of PM-2.5 pollution, which may become regulatory targets for air quality management districts.

The ideal baking method would be to match sourdough production with daylight hours.

This would allow sourdough producers to create more demand for the belly of the duck curve, reducing the cost of electricity. Solar overproduction in midday would also have a new midday sink.

Because of collective agoraphobia created by #COVID19, potential pizza oven emissions pose a real threat to communities.

Additionally, commercial ovens are often too large for home kitchens.

The home-boutique small-batch sourdough equipment space is ripe for disruption.

It should be abundantly clear that a large, electric, solar-powered (with battery backup) baker's oven will not only be cost effective in the face of falling sourdough prices, but will reduce oven carbon and particulate emissions.

Like it or not, the sourdough revolution is coming.

It can either destroy our planet and bread economy, or make them better for everyone.

The choice is ours to make.

Thank you for coming to my TED Talk.

I hereby dedicate this thread of economic nonsense and buffoonery to the folks at @Marketplace, in the hopes of making someone smile.

And yes, I am making starters (with mixed success) because I'm bored and like carbs, just like everyone else.

Now I'll just wait for my Nobel in economics to arrive, since nobody can get on a plane and go to Sweden.

Don't you guys get cheap on me and make me pay for the shipping.