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An unlikely state that& #39;s giving me pause about the state of political polling right now is... Nebraska https://www.prri.org/research/in-middle-america-nebraskans-struggle-with-a-changing-cultural-landscape/">https://www.prri.org/research/...
The state voted for Trump by 25, voted GOP by like 20 in the House vote/
Here are our recent measures there...
PRRI: Trump favorability -4
Morning Consult: Trump approval -4 (that& #39;s worse than TX/FL/NC/GA/AZ)
Civiqs: Trump+7 (only a few pts better than OH/TX)
Here are our recent measures there...
PRRI: Trump favorability -4
Morning Consult: Trump approval -4 (that& #39;s worse than TX/FL/NC/GA/AZ)
Civiqs: Trump+7 (only a few pts better than OH/TX)
Is it possible that there& #39;s a huge rebellion against Trump there? Maybe. Possibly.
But when we polled NE-2 last year (a Trump+2 CD), we had Trump approval at minus-2.
When we polled IA-4, we had Trump+18 approval and got the result about right
But when we polled NE-2 last year (a Trump+2 CD), we had Trump approval at minus-2.
When we polled IA-4, we had Trump+18 approval and got the result about right
(IA-4 neighbors Nebraska and voted about the same for Trump, though much better for Obama)
So maybe there& #39;s a Trump rebellion.
Or maybe it& #39;s tough to reach rural white voters and, even when they do, may be getting a fairly non-Trump group.
Can& #39;t prove it either way, but it& #39;s a big gap with my priors, fits a persistent bias in polling, and our data is inconsistent
Or maybe it& #39;s tough to reach rural white voters and, even when they do, may be getting a fairly non-Trump group.
Can& #39;t prove it either way, but it& #39;s a big gap with my priors, fits a persistent bias in polling, and our data is inconsistent
our data is inconsistent with those findings, to be clear
