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Adam Kucharski
AdamJKucharski
I am deeply uncomfortable with the message that UK is actively pursuing ‘herd immunity’ as the main COVID-19 strategy. Our group’s scenario modelling has focused on reducing two main things:
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How many COVID-19 cases have countries been detecting relative to testing effort? Here's plot of total number of reported tests per confirmed case over time - for Germany, Italy, Japan,
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How likely it is that someone will test positive with COVID-19 a few days after developing symptoms? Useful preliminary analysis by @LourencoJML et al https://www.medrxiv.org/content/10.1101/2020.04.05.20053355v1.article-metrics The authors estimated
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Updated @cmmid_lshtm rough estimates for the proportion of symptomatic cases that are potentially being reported in different locations, now estimating changes over time (analysis led by @timwrussell) https://cmmid.github.io/topics/covid19/severity/g
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How does mathematical modelling analysis feed into UK government COVID-19 policy? You've probably heard of Cobra, chaired by the PM, but there are two other steps worth knowing about... 1/
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Overview of climate and local COVID-19 transmission by @kathmoreilly @drrachellowe et al. In summary: we shouldn't assume transmission will decline substantially during the summer. https://cmmid.github.io/topics/covid19/current-patterns-transmiss
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How much could potential biases in early data affect our current understanding of COVID-19? This question crops up a lot, so let's look at three crucial aspects of that early
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Since January, @cmmid_lshtm has carried out a range of modelling work to support COVID-19 planning. We've now finished a full write-up of the specific UK scenario analyses we've worked on
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I've seen a fair few opinion pieces on 'easy' COVID-19 strategies. So what I like about this study by @LucaFerrettiEvo @ChristoPhraser is that it makes effort to break down epidemiological,
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