Thread by @AdamJKucharski, How does mathematical modelling analysis feed into UK government COVID-19 policy? You've [...]

How does mathematical modelling analysis feed into UK government COVID-19 policy? You've probably heard of Cobra, chaired by the PM, but there are two other steps worth knowing about... 1/

The Chief Scientific Adviser and Chief Medical Officer take advice from a specially convened Scientific Advisory Group for Emergencies (SAGE), which includes experts on the emergency involved (in this case COVID-19) 2/

SAGE are in turn advised by the Scientific Pandemic Influenza Group on Modelling (SPI-M), which includes representatives from leading modelling groups. This currently includes Exeter, Bristol, Imperial, LSHTM, Warwick, Cambridge, Manchester, Lancaster, Strathclyde & Edinburgh 3/

It's worth emphasising that government decisions almost never rely on a single model/paper. The aim of SPI-M is to provide multiple models/scenarios to create as solid an evidence base as possible for very tough decisions. Here are some examples of relevant work by members... 4/

University of Cambridge:
https://journals.plos.org/plosmedicine/article?id=10.1371/journal.pmed.1000207
https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/books/NBK458958/
https://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S1755436518300306
5/

Contagion! The BBC Four Pandemic – The model behind the documentary

To mark the centenary of the 1918 influenza pandemic, the broadcasting network BBC have put together a 75-min documentary called ‘Contagion! The BBC F…

https://journals.plos.org/plosmedicine/article?id=10.1371/journal.pmed.1000207

Imperial College London:
https://www.imperial.ac.uk/mrc-global-infectious-disease-analysis/news--wuhan-coronavirus/
https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pubmed/16642006
https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pubmed/19433588
6/

COVID-19 reports

26 March 2020 - Imperial College London‌

https://www.imperial.ac.uk/mrc-global-infectious-disease-analysis/news--wuhan-coronavirus/

LSHTM (full disclosure: this includes our group):
https://www.thelancet.com/journals/laninf/article/PIIS1473-3099(20)30144-4/fulltext
https://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S0264410X10000320
https://www.thelancet.com/journals/langlo/article/PIIS2214-109X(20)30074-7/fulltext
7/

Feasibility of controlling COVID-19 outbreaks by isolation of cases and contacts

In most scenarios, highly effective contact tracing and case isolation is enough to control a new outbreak of COVID-19 within 3 months. The probability of control decreases with long delays from...

https://www.thelancet.com/journals/laninf/article/PIIS1473-3099(20)30144-4/fulltext

Public Health England:
https://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/abs/pii/S0531513104002213
https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/articles/PMC3371825/
8/

Potential Impact of Antiviral Drug Use during Influenza Pandemic

The recent spread of highly pathogenic strains of avian influenza has highlighted the threat posed by pandemic influenza. In the early phases of a pandemic, the only treatment available would be...

https://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/abs/pii/S0531513104002213

Warwick:
https://www.medrxiv.org/content/10.1101/2020.02.12.20022566v1
https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/articles/PMC3145187/
https://www.pnas.org/content/107/19/8866.short
9/

Individual identity and movement networks for disease metapopulations

The theory of networks has had a huge impact in both the physical and life sciences, shaping our understanding of the interaction between multiple elements in complex systems. In particular, networks...

https://www.medrxiv.org/content/10.1101/2020.02.12.20022566v1

And here is SPI-M report on pandemic planning that describes evidence base for many measures, including school closures, airport screening, travel restrictions, social distancing (note these are for flu, so are now being updated for COVID-19) https://www.gov.uk/government/publications/spi-m-publish-updated-modelling-summary 10/10

SPI-M modelling summary for pandemic influenza

Advice from the scientific pandemic influenza modelling group (SPI-M) on dealing with a possible influenza outbreak.

https://www.gov.uk/government/publications/spi-m-publish-updated-modelling-summary

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