Since January, @cmmid_lshtm has carried out a range of modelling work to support COVID-19 planning. We've now finished a full write-up of the specific UK scenario analyses we've worked on over the past 6 weeks or so. Pre-print available here: https://cmmid.github.io/topics/covid19/control-measures/uk-scenario-modelling.html 1/

First, a reminder of how COVID-19 modelling feeds into UK decision making: a range of independent modelling groups provide evidence through SPI-M and SAGE, often in response to specific questions https://twitter.com/AdamJKucharski/status/1238418007824764930?s=20 2/

Our pre-print has more details about the model assumptions and scenarios we considered, but here's a summary of the key scenario analyses we conducted: 3/

It's worth emphasising that this isn't the only modelling work @cmmid_lshtm has done to support COVID-19 planning – my colleagues have looked at isolation/contact tracing, social interaction patterns, airport screening and more... https://twitter.com/AdamJKucharski/status/1239209782894002177?s=20 4/

Code and data for the UK analysis are available here: https://github.com/cmmid/covid-uk . Credit in particular to @_nickdavies @rozeggo @amyg225 & John Edmunds for all their work on this over past couple of months. 5/5