Toggle navigation
TWText.com
TWText.com
faq
Contact US
Follow US
Adam Kucharski
AdamJKucharski
How would a 'protect the vulnerable and let everyone else go back to normal' approach to COVID play out? I see three main scenarios, each with important consequences to consider...
Read more
If COVID cases/hospitalisations/deaths are rising - as they are in many European countries - there are only two ways the trend will reverse.... 1/ A. Enough change in control measures
Read more
I often see the misconception that control measures directly scale COVID case numbers (e.g. “hospitalisations are low so measures should be relaxed”). But in reality, measures scale *transmission* and transmission
Read more
I'm getting asked more about the 'k' parameter that describes variation in the reproduction number, R (i.e. describes superspreading). But what does this parameter actually mean? A short statistical thread...
Read more
COVID app launches today. Would encourage everyone to download & use - we need every tool we can get to tackle this pandemic, and effectiveness will increase dramatically with number
Read more
As well as limits on gathering size in recent months (https://twitter.com/AdamJKucharski/status/1298970718105993217?s=20 ), another feature of Sweden that stands out is household size - it's smallest average in Europe, with majority
Read more
I'm seeing more and more suggestions that groups at low risk of COVID-19 should go back to normal while high risk groups are protected. What would the logical implications of
Read more
I still see the persistent, but incorrect, claim that control measures just delay - rather than reduce - the impact of an epidemic. A thread on the problem of 'overshoot'...
Read more
What are the benefits/limitations of mass testing certain populations for SARS-CoV-2 regardless of symptoms? A thread... 1/ SARS-CoV-2 can transmit before symptoms appear, so by the time a symptomatic case
Read more
How much could variation in social contacts and susceptibility influence the size of an outbreak (and hence notions of herd immunity)? Well, it depends on a few things... 1/ It's
Read more
Reintroduction of measures from Da Nang to Auckland is a reminder that once venues reopened/restrictions lifted, cannot assume contact tracing alone will be sufficient to control local transmission (consistent with
Read more
What happens when a population reaches herd immunity? Does it mean epidemics suddenly stop forever? Unfortunately not... 1/ The herd immunity threshold is when susceptibility is reduced to point where
Read more
‹
1
2
3
4
›