If COVID cases/hospitalisations/deaths are rising - as they are in many European countries - there are only two ways the trend will reverse.... 1/

A. Enough change in control measures and/or behaviour to push R below 1. The extent of restrictions required will depend on population structure/household composition etc. But given existing measures are disruptive and R is above 1, could take a lot of effort to get R down. 2/

B. Accumulation of sufficient immunity to push R below 1. However, evidence from Spain (e.g. https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-europe-54383548) suggests ICUs will start hitting capacity before this point, so to avoid them being overwhelmed, would likely end up cycling between epidemics and (A) above. 3/3

Finally, a note about differences in population structure and implications for transmission: https://twitter.com/AdamJKucharski/status/1307958852248272898?s=20