#Incerto

You should look at @nntaleb’s efforts to debunk IQ to start with. Differences in intelligence/s exist somewhere, but we probably overrate our ability to define it, let alone measure it—IQ

Nassim Nicholas Taleb

To sleep well: hedge all your tail exposures. #RWRI+ hide nothing from your enemies+ pay all your taxes, show the IRS all your income mother of all tail risks)+ be

Nassim Nicholas Taleb

Aside from the pathetic modeling behind the "herd immunity": it is morally repulsive.Civilization RESIDES in the enforcement of intergenerational golden (actuallly, silver rules): don't treat your parents the way you

Nassim Nicholas Taleb

Friends, there is a mob of "COVID is not serious" (even hoax) politicized attack dogs w/no notion of science nor interest in it who tag to the very few play-the-system

TaylorPearsonMe

I just got an email from a reader with a background in Bogleheads/Vanguard/Value investing philosophy.They were looking for the best resources for understanding portfolio theory/diversification and risk.This is what I

Did covid-19 catch you unprepared?Here's your checklist for the next decade:- learn to be at peace in solitude- work towards financial independence- have an emergency fund- get your home ready

Mostly Borrowed Ideas

1/ Notes from @rorysutherland episode at @InvestLikeBest This episode was a reminder of Munger's latticework of mental models, and how much knowledge from other fields can actually be transferable to

Startups (founders + employees) work 10 year with below market salary hoping for equity value. With 43.4% capital gains, in California, that is 56.4% tax. Estate tax takes 40%. Spend

Jeremy McLellan

Just finished the Incerto by @nntaleb and it occurs to me that the local extended family serves as personal insurance against black swans. Throwing the elderly under the bus during

Nassim Nicholas Taleb

BOOK PUBLISHING THREAD, 1First Wave: Fashion buyers, the class of people who systematically buy NEW "idea books". The entire book industry organized to sell to them. Books must be "in

Nassim Nicholas Taleb

101 BS THINGS TAUGHT TO STUDENTS, 1That correlation is a measure of relationship betw 2 variables. It is very rarely so.Few understand how correlation requires 1) no subsampling, 2) strict

Single? It might not be your fault.#Incerto readers. I could use some help here. It'll take me years to do this alone. Right off the bat. You've been told all

Sarah Constantin

I’ve seen a couple critiques of sclerotic bureaucracy lately that feel insightful but a little off to me. (https://americanmind.org/features/the-green-zone-plan/burst-the-complacency-bubble-before-its-too-late/, https://medium.com/@curtis.yarvin/plan

Noise Bottleneck 101With the media in election frenzy, it has become increasingly difficult to find the signal amidst all the noise. We encounter a classic @nntaleb "noise bottleneck."But what is

Lindy Effect 101With Bitcoin's return to the spotlight, debates on its long-term viability are raging. Its proponents contend @nntaleb's Lindy Effect says the technology is here to stay.But what is

PermanentCapital

1/ In the spirit of a remix, I have been meaning to put together a list of the big foundational ideas - the mental tools that have helped me make