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1/ A thread on DECISION MAKING.
Big decisions are gut-wrenching, but really they shouldn't be. In this thread, I write about "metathinking", a process that helps me take decisions confidently.
Big decisions are gut-wrenching, but really they shouldn't be. In this thread, I write about "metathinking", a process that helps me take decisions confidently.
2/ Who to marry, where to work, who to hire, how to fire, which subject to major in, how to make a career change, which car to buy, where to invest, et cetra.
We stall and brood over those because all such decisions represent major one-way forks in our life.
We stall and brood over those because all such decisions represent major one-way forks in our life.
3/ Given the importance of big decisions in our lives, it’s a surprise that nobody teaches us how to handle them.
We’re taught solving for lever and pulley problems (something we’d never encounter in real life) but we’re not taught how to choose a career.
We’re taught solving for lever and pulley problems (something we’d never encounter in real life) but we’re not taught how to choose a career.
4/ Thinking is hard because our brains never evolved to be certain; rather, they evolved to ensure we survive and reproduce.
While we want to optimize (take the best possible decision), our brains want to satisfice (take a good enough decision) https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Satisficing
While we want to optimize (take the best possible decision), our brains want to satisfice (take a good enough decision) https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Satisficing
5/ This difference in what we want (choosing the best career) and what our brain gravitates towards (choosing a “good enough” career) results in that familiar gut-wrenching confusion.
Our brain happily remains undecided because even it doesn’t know! (How would it know?)
Our brain happily remains undecided because even it doesn’t know! (How would it know?)
6/ The default method of deciding is sloppy. If there’s a big decision hanging up in the air, we immediately start considering options that occur to us or do a Google search.
And that info influences not just the decision but what we value https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Availability_heuristic
And that info influences not just the decision but what we value https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Availability_heuristic
7/ Thinking is hard enough already, but even that ability is slowly getting lost.
Reflect on this: WHEN was the LAST TIME you closed your eyes and really THOUGHT HARD about something for > 5 MINUTES?
Reflect on this: WHEN was the LAST TIME you closed your eyes and really THOUGHT HARD about something for > 5 MINUTES?
8/ Internet is great at giving us pre-thought ideas and knowledge but it is taking away our ability to think in return.
9/ Social media makes us react, rather than to act.
Our opinions and preferences are constantly getting shaped by what we see and read around us. Do we really know what we want anymore?
Our opinions and preferences are constantly getting shaped by what we see and read around us. Do we really know what we want anymore?
10/ Google lulls us into a feeling of “thinking” without actually doing any thinking.
Reading a Quora answer or Medium article is not thinking, but it feels like that because our brain gets an expanded perspective (one that it didn’t have before).
Reading a Quora answer or Medium article is not thinking, but it feels like that because our brain gets an expanded perspective (one that it didn’t have before).
11/ I do not have an issue with research on Google or reading articles from Facebook or Twitter.
What I have an issue with is this path dependence nature of consuming information when you don’t know what you’re looking for.
What I have an issue with is this path dependence nature of consuming information when you don’t know what you’re looking for.
12/ Earlier, I wrote about the meta-mental model on how to categorize your mental models. https://invertedpassion.com/meta-mental-model/
But metathinking is different: it’s a process of THINKING ABOUT THINKING.
But metathinking is different: it’s a process of THINKING ABOUT THINKING.
13/ Everyone, obviously, thinks through big decisions. But, all sorts of chance events impact what the outcome of thinking https://invertedpassion.com/hacks-to-avoid-cognitive-biases/
The sequence of information we consume becomes primary influence on our thinking process and decisions and that's troublesome.
The sequence of information we consume becomes primary influence on our thinking process and decisions and that's troublesome.
14/ There are SO MANY BIASES in our usual ways of thinking. Consider just a few examples.
15/ My RECOMMENDATION: Rather than going randomly about “thinking”, a much better approach is to “metathink”.
16/ That is, before thinking, decide what process you’re going to use for thinking, list down how you’d ensure you prevent common biases, enumerate most important criteria and depending on importance of decision, how much time and effort you’re willing to put into “thinking”.
17/ Fancy a small exercise?
Just reflect on your last big decision. It could be about career, life, purchase you made, trip you took. Think of a decision that involved substantial time, effort, reputation or monetary investment from your side.
Just reflect on your last big decision. It could be about career, life, purchase you made, trip you took. Think of a decision that involved substantial time, effort, reputation or monetary investment from your side.
18/ Now recall what was your process of taking that decision? Reflect on it from start to end. I recommend writing it on a piece of paper to be able to contrast it with my suggested approach later.
Don’t proceed until you’re done.
Don’t proceed until you’re done.
19/ Now, imagine that the decision and event never happened, and you have to take the same decision today.
How would you go about it?
How would you go about it?
20/ With experience and hindsight, you’d think that you would take a better decision this time but you’re wrong. Hindsight and experience remove certain biases but they add their own.
21/ For example, these factors could significantly influence what you decide (again):
- your today’s mood,
- highlights that you remember about the decision,
- an off-hand comment about your decision by a friend
- what you’ve read up recently, etc.
- your today’s mood,
- highlights that you remember about the decision,
- an off-hand comment about your decision by a friend
- what you’ve read up recently, etc.
22/ Experience is useless and expensive unless (deeply) reflected upon.
Even the 2nd time, you’ll make similar errors in your decision making (ever heard people divorcing more than once? or people changing jobs in quick succession?)
Even the 2nd time, you’ll make similar errors in your decision making (ever heard people divorcing more than once? or people changing jobs in quick succession?)
23/ METATHINK your decisions: instead of diving straight into thinking, dive into your thinking about thinking.
Start with thinking about how will you decide rather than deciding because any bit of information that comes to your mind during deciding changes your criteria.
Start with thinking about how will you decide rather than deciding because any bit of information that comes to your mind during deciding changes your criteria.
24/ Metathinking sounds trivial but isn’t.
Chances are that you may be underwhelmed by my advice because decision making criteria is common knowledge. You may have drafted criteria for few of your decisions before, so let me emphasize what you probably didn’t do
Chances are that you may be underwhelmed by my advice because decision making criteria is common knowledge. You may have drafted criteria for few of your decisions before, so let me emphasize what you probably didn’t do
25/ How often do you make a decision criteria for decisions? Like brushing your teeth, metathinking is a habit.
The point isn’t if you’ve ever made decision criteria for your decision, but if you make it EACH TIME you need to make a decision.
Do you?
The point isn’t if you’ve ever made decision criteria for your decision, but if you make it EACH TIME you need to make a decision.
Do you?
26/ Do you make a decision criteria before or after doing research or thinking on a decision?
Metathinking needs to be the absolute first step for any thinking process, otherwise it’ll be biased.
Do you make your criteria after "initial exploration"?
Metathinking needs to be the absolute first step for any thinking process, otherwise it’ll be biased.
Do you make your criteria after "initial exploration"?
28/ EXAMPLE #2 of Metathinking.
Before thinking and writing the blog post corresponding to this thread, I laid out why this article was needed and what was important to be conveyed.
Before thinking and writing the blog post corresponding to this thread, I laid out why this article was needed and what was important to be conveyed.
29/ Example #3 of Metathinking.
Last year, I decided to talk to founders who have scaled their companies to $50mn and beyond. Instead of "winging it" on the call, I clearly laid out what I wanted to cover in these calls before going on my first call.
Last year, I decided to talk to founders who have scaled their companies to $50mn and beyond. Instead of "winging it" on the call, I clearly laid out what I wanted to cover in these calls before going on my first call.
30/ To SUM UP MY ADVICE in one tweet: metathinking is a plan for thinking.
Imagine making a building without a plan: going to construction site and “winging it”. You wouldn’t do it, right? Then why would you not plan when it comes to making big life decisions?
Imagine making a building without a plan: going to construction site and “winging it”. You wouldn’t do it, right? Then why would you not plan when it comes to making big life decisions?
31/ That's all. A lot more detail in my new blog post: https://invertedpassion.com/metathinking/
I blog all my twitter threads on https://invertedpassion.com/ <- SUBSCRIBE here for email updates.
RT if you agree, reply if you disagree :)
I blog all my twitter threads on https://invertedpassion.com/ <- SUBSCRIBE here for email updates.
RT if you agree, reply if you disagree :)
