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Since the Neoliberal Subreddit twitter has deigned to dunk on me for my monetary and banking views, it's time for a thread of indeterminate length!
As to the question of whether "Central Bank Oversight" is "Stabilizing" the historical record of the United States would not suggest so, even relative to a regulated banking regime of the late 19th Century
http://citeseerx.ist.psu.edu/viewdoc/download?doi=10.1.1.365.4959&rep=rep1&type=pdf
http://citeseerx.ist.psu.edu/viewdoc/download?doi=10.1.1.365.4959&rep=rep1&type=pdf
As for Ben Bernanke, the fact that he's the first Fed Chair since McCabe to preside over a *contraction of the effective money stream*-you know, that thing that *made the Great Depression Great*-that speaks for itself, even if you disbelieve unsustainable boom theories.
Seriously, I don't get why the Neoliberal Subreddit is full of Keynesians when they could at least be Market Monetarists. But don't tell me you're a devotee of Milton Friedman, whatever you do
Read Sumner on the contraction. Hell, read Bernanke's own writings on what the Bank of Japan should've done. He didn't do those things.
Beckworth is one economist who takes a balanced view similar to my own, that the late Greenspan/Early Bernanke years were too loose and the later Bernanke years too tight: https://www.alt-m.org/2015/04/25/was-monetary-policy-loose-during-the-housing-boom/
These Economists paint a picture of the Greenspan/Bernanke years of *pro-cyclical*
But isn't it fair to say it's counter cyclical relative to laissez faire? There are good theoretical grounds for saying no.
But isn't it fair to say it's counter cyclical relative to laissez faire? There are good theoretical grounds for saying no.
There is extensive historical evidence backing the idea that relative to regulated banking regimes on gold or fiat monetary standards, relatively lightly regulated banking does indeed increase financial and macroeconomic stability https://books.google.com/books?id=-Z6KAgAAQBAJ&dq=the+experience+of+free+banking&lr=&source=gbs_navlinks_s
Regarding the Gold Standard itself, on the one hand it's certainly true that it can be only weakly countercyclical or even procyclical *relative to an imaginary perfectly managed fiat money*
There is no such thing as perfectly managed fiat money in the real world. And the Gold Standard itself is subject to a number of misconceptions, even amongst trained economists:
https://www.alt-m.org/2015/06/04/ten-things-every-economist-should-know-about-the-gold-standard-2/
However, in my platform I do not advocate restoring the gold standard.
https://www.alt-m.org/2015/06/04/ten-things-every-economist-should-know-about-the-gold-standard-2/
However, in my platform I do not advocate restoring the gold standard.
I agree with Selgin's reasons why this is unlikely to work:
https://papers.ssrn.com/sol3/papers.cfm?abstract_id=2524863
I do advocate for Asset Currency:
https://cdnc.ucr.edu/cgi-bin/cdnc?a=d&d=SFC19030208.2.171.4
And an automatic rule stabilizing quasi-commodity money along the lines of Selgin's "BitDollar" idea: https://www.alt-m.org/2014/12/12/free-banking-and-the-dollar/
https://papers.ssrn.com/sol3/papers.cfm?abstract_id=2524863
I do advocate for Asset Currency:
https://cdnc.ucr.edu/cgi-bin/cdnc?a=d&d=SFC19030208.2.171.4
And an automatic rule stabilizing quasi-commodity money along the lines of Selgin's "BitDollar" idea: https://www.alt-m.org/2014/12/12/free-banking-and-the-dollar/
This is in line with Milton Friedman's suggestion that we could close down the FOMC and replace it with a computer
This would essentially "End the Fed" for all intents and purposes. And if you like Milton Friedman, there's good reason to believe he was moving toward this kind of view late in his life:
https://pdfs.semanticscholar.org/fd52/008176267b5f347dfd9ef84b0d5481b51e3a.pdf
https://pdfs.semanticscholar.org/fd52/008176267b5f347dfd9ef84b0d5481b51e3a.pdf
(I should mention I'm giving y'all a crash course here. I could supply even further writings for most of these points)
The question of "which monetary rule" such a money should target/follow is a good one. I am agnostic. Here is a paper discussing some pros and cons:
https://papers.ssrn.com/sol3/papers.cfm?abstract_id=2373230
https://papers.ssrn.com/sol3/papers.cfm?abstract_id=2373230
I lean toward either the Hayek Rule or a "Productivity Norm" personally, although I am unsure which would be better
I will now take questions from the audience
