1/n The discussion of the latest Texas RRC data will be longer than in past,because the latest data showed a massive data update, the largest ever recorded in my vintage data collection (for almost all most recent months), with the latest month increased by almost 900 kb/d, ...

2/n .. before posting my usual plots of Texas production data, I first post the time dynamics for the correcting factors (for crude oil only), where the latter are the differences between the two latest published datasets by the RRC: as you see, ...

3/n ... the data updates posted the the RRC increased in the last year due to A) strong increasing production , B) delays in data reporting caused by the hurricane season. These two phenomenons distorted completely the usual variability of the data reported by the RRC...

4/n ..as a consequence my usual method to add the average(over all vintage data) of the differences between two subsequent published datasets by the RRC has become not very precise for the latest reported months. Therefore, from now on, I will post two types of corrected data ..

5/n .. A) the usual corrected data using all vintage data (warning:not precise for the latest months); B) the corrected data given by the sum of the initial RRC data with the differences between ONLY the two latest published datasets by the RRC ...

6/n ... For those who followed me since 2014, the last method is nothing else but the original method I proposed to correct the initial RRC data in January 2014!As some of you know, after some time I discarded this initial method because its estimates tended to be very volatile..

7/n ..However,given the presence of several structural breaks in the reported RRC data due to hurricane disruptions, digitalization, collapse/brutal rise in drilling,etc, from now on I will report both the estimates with all vintage data as well as with only the 2 latest month...

8/n ...finally, we can start: Texas RRC data for #crude and #natgas out up to December 2017: my corrected data for #crudeoil only

9/n ... Texas RRC data for #crude and #natgas out up to December 2017: my corrected data for #condensate only

10/n ... Texas RRC #crude and #natgas out up to December 2017: my corrected data for #crudeoil+ #condensate vs #EIA data ...

11/n ... Texas RRC data for #crude and #natgas out up to December 2017: my corrected data for (total) #naturalgas vs EIA

12/n ... the funny thing is that I found out that my original 2014 method of summing up the initial Texas RRC data with only the latest correcting factors gives almost identical estimates to the EIA data ...

13/n .. Time to conclude: I contacted the EIA and asked some questions about the increasing divergence with RRC data, but after being sent to another person, this person have not yet answered (more than 1 month has passed).I asked the same questions to the RRC and got this reply:

14/n ... as you see the reply is very generic, but at least they replied to me quite quickly. In a follow up, they also informed me that the condensate/NGL production from gas wells is reported and posted by another department at the RRC, ...

15/n .. but unfortunately they did not tell me whether condensate from gas wells is included in the final tally with condensate from oil wells. Some colleagues told me that they should be reported together, but I do not have the 100% confirmation.

16/n I think that the final production data will probably be between the two methods posted above, but this will be clear in approximately 1 year from now (note that the EIA proceeds to major revisions of the Petroleum Supply Monthly usually after 1 year)...

17/n The best solution to all these problems is to develop a multivariate model for the time dynamics of the correcting factors, which show a good amount of time dependence and seasonality. I plan to do this when I will finish writing a textbook for my graduate students ...

18/END ... now after this extremely long thread, everyone is tired, so time for a beer !