Roy Moore is suing Alabama to stop Jones's win from being certified.

He effectively cites high turnout in black areas as evidence of fraud! & evokes mass Election Day migration—a fantasy borrowed from Trump's NH conspiracies.

Let's look at the complaint together, shall we:

1. Moore cites high turnout in a county that's far higher-than-average African-American (a pattern that's not exceptional & is documented throughout state) as evidence of fraud. African Americans voting is apparently inherently suspicious.

2. In any case, Moore's wrong: Jefferson's turnout relative to 2016 high, yes, but very much in line with counties with significantly Af-Am pop. See: https://twitter.com/Taniel/status/940804429086945281

He invented Jefferson's exceptionality bc only county in list above big enough for him to claim fraud.

3. Note logic's perversity: they call higher turnout historically "unusual" & "anomalous"—and from there they jump to calling it "unexplained" & "implausible." Effectively uses past patterns of suppression as evidence for impropriety today!

4. State's GOP SoS predicted 25% turnout—an implausibly low number he justified by citing low energy he saw while traveling. Observers have panned him. Moore now using this vast underestimation from an official from his own party as evidence higher turnout equals massive fraud.

5. Moore claims results suspicious bc they conflict with pre-election polls AND exit polls. (a) Irrelevant. (b) In any case, false. Preliminary exit poll showed tight race; many pollsters emphasized suspense; & 3.7% deviation between result & RCP average not anomalous.

6. Moore later again claims that results are suspicious because they conflict with "independent exit polls." His premise: exit polls have a "high degree of accuracy." ... I think I can move on, right?

7. Next theme: an "unusual, unexplained pattern of voters having out-of-state drivers' licenses"—a variation on Trump & Mitchell's familiar "bused-in" refrain.

This is a brief 2-paragraph section that only contains the following quote as evidence:

8. As evidence for out-of-staters voting, Moore cites a YouTube video the right has seized on where a Jones supporter says the following. SoS already investigated video... & discovered man who said this was an Alabama resident. But that's not enough for Moore.

9. It's hard to follow what relevance the complaint thinks this has--but it seems that it thinks the fact that a SuperPac was funded by Democrats is one reason to dismiss the results:

10. There's more, but to conclude: adding "mere" in front of a margin of victory isn't by itself enough to make it tiny.

This entire lawsuit is a taste of what Trump & Kobach's rhetoric & conspiracies lead to, and potentially a preview of what could follow if Trump loses in November 2020.

As a PS, item 11: @ElectProject highlights another part of Moore's complaint (and "even Merrill" does mean a lot) https://twitter.com/electproject/status/946380873015930880

Another bonus: replies to my thread flag items #12 & #13 that are specious in Moore's complaint.

Resolution? Judge has rejected this lawsuit, & Jones's certification is scheduled to occur in 20 minutes. https://twitter.com/alanblinder/status/946449405145747456

Alabama has now certified Doug Jones's win over Roy Moore, per @alanblinder. [/thread ends, neatly] https://twitter.com/MikeCasonAL/status/946454941044002816