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Lot of speculation these days about how #Trump Admin will manage a REAL crisis, given its high level of baseline chaos. Let's dive in. 1/
I ran int'l disaster response under Obama, incl the Ebola reponse. Trump is undermining every crisis mgmt tool USG has in its arsenal. 2/
. @BillGates was on @NPR today talking #pandemic threat. Nerve-wracking to think how current White House would handle such a crisis. 3/
Not a theoretical threat. Each POTUS has faced outbreak crises: AIDS, SARS, Bird flu, swine flu, Ebola. Just a matter of time. 4/
#Ebola was complex & tough as hell, even tho not a very transmissible disease. A highly contagious, highly fatal flu would be 100x worse. 5/
Defeating Ebola req'd solid crisis mgmt: strong NSC process, reliable info flow to POTUS, credible public & global messaging... 6/
...scientific expertise, strong multilat partnerships, all feeding a coherent strategy. Trump weakening EVERY SINGLE ONE of these tools. 7/
NSC process is reputedly a wreck. Deputies' mtgs are the engine of major crisis mgmt - if they're not working, you'll fail, period. 8/
Why? B/c any major crisis is inherent whole-of-govt endeavor. On Ebola: USAID, CDC, DoD, State, USPHS, etc. Need strong NSC traffic cop. 9/
Need reliable info flow to POTUS. Obama's info reqs kept us focused, helped interagency alignment, enabled informed real-time decisions. 10/
In active crisis, accurate real-time info is paramount. Ignoring PDBs, not reading briefing papers - ensures poor decision making. 11/
Next: public credibility. If outbreak hits, White House uniquely positioned to message to US & world - but only if ppl trust them. 12/
On past outbreaks, POTUS' personal involvement could spur global action. US credibility was a given. But would the world believe Trump? 13/
Respect for science...oy. Need I even say it? Will Admin that flirts w/ anti-vaxxers & climate deniers listen to its own health experts? 14/
This matters ENORMOUSLY. Outbreak control rests on understanding the disease; misunderstand the science and you'll use the wrong tools. 15/
