Read on Twitter
X : How concerned are you about supply chains?
Me : Do you remember the financial crash because few people knew what was in all those collateralized debt obligations which numerous instruments were built upon and there was just an assumption that things would be fine?
X : And?
Me : Do you remember the financial crash because few people knew what was in all those collateralized debt obligations which numerous instruments were built upon and there was just an assumption that things would be fine?
X : And?
Me : I'm in a AA tranche (UK) listening to people look at a BB tranche (Sri Lanka) with the belief that it could never happen here when no-one seems to really know in depth the supply chains, what's in them, what's substitutable / rivalrous / excludable with what etc etc ...
... at the same time people say "we can grow more" but the farmers that I talk to point out soil health, lack of regenerative farming, addiction to synthetic sources (potash, nitrogen, phosphorous etc) and ... well ... https://twitter.com/TommyVarden/status/1534043896417755136 ...
... and into the mix, we've got some people focused on national solutions to what is a global issue in a time of conflict.
So, yes ... I have concerns.
So, yes ... I have concerns.
X : Is this a new concern?
Me : No. We've had so many close calls / warning shots e.g. brexit, covid and we never seem to learn - https://twitter.com/swardley/status/1460234457294716935 ... and this is not something new. You only have to go back to 2016 and "global risks" barely ever mentioned supply chains ...
Me : No. We've had so many close calls / warning shots e.g. brexit, covid and we never seem to learn - https://twitter.com/swardley/status/1460234457294716935 ... and this is not something new. You only have to go back to 2016 and "global risks" barely ever mentioned supply chains ...
.... there has always been an assumption that you can just buy the components (whatever it is - food, chemicals etc) from somewhere else and ship it.
X : How severe could this become?
Me : When hospitals are providing food banks for nurses ... you know there isn't much capacity in the system - https://www.independent.co.uk/news/health/hospitals-food-banks-crisis-cost-living-b2083779.html
Me : When hospitals are providing food banks for nurses ... you know there isn't much capacity in the system - https://www.independent.co.uk/news/health/hospitals-food-banks-crisis-cost-living-b2083779.html
X : Could people starve in the UK?
Me : Already happens. In 2020, 75 people died of malnutrition according to NOMIS data. The question is how much worse does that become?
Me : Already happens. In 2020, 75 people died of malnutrition according to NOMIS data. The question is how much worse does that become?
Me : Well, no turkey for Christmas then - https://twitter.com/WillManidis/status/1536347704938229767
X : What has LNG got to do with Turkeys?
Me : This is the problem with not understanding our supply chains - gas powered industrial egg incubators and all. Someone is going to have to make some hard choices.
X : What has LNG got to do with Turkeys?
Me : This is the problem with not understanding our supply chains - gas powered industrial egg incubators and all. Someone is going to have to make some hard choices.
X : You are kidding?
Me : Well, as I said it's difficult to know without clarity on our supply chains, from materials (such as LNG) to logistics (such as shipping) to the inteconnections. Hungary should have been a huge wake up call for everyone - https://phys.org/news/2022-05-country-entire-economy-predictand-forthe.html
Me : Well, as I said it's difficult to know without clarity on our supply chains, from materials (such as LNG) to logistics (such as shipping) to the inteconnections. Hungary should have been a huge wake up call for everyone - https://phys.org/news/2022-05-country-entire-economy-predictand-forthe.html
X : Is this why you want a Department of the Supply Chain?
Me : Supply chains and CNI are far too important to be left to the market, especially if we're going to expand the theatre to include the economy. It's a good idea to look at the landscape.
Me : Supply chains and CNI are far too important to be left to the market, especially if we're going to expand the theatre to include the economy. It's a good idea to look at the landscape.
If you really want to understand the importance of this, can I suggest reading "Topographical Intelligence and the American Civil War", D.D. Nettesheim, 1978.
Explosion at Texas LNG terminal 'spells trouble' for gas-hungry Europe - https://www.washingtonexaminer.com/policy/energy-environment/freeport-lng-explosion-spells-trouble-for-europe
Global Transport Systems Supply Chains on Brink of ‘Collapse’ - https://bylinetimes.com/2022/05/20/running-out-of-road-global-transport-systems-supply-chains-on-brink-of-collapse-warns-industry-body/
X : Any thoughts on actions needed?
Me : Sure but it depends.
X : On what?
Me : Let us suppose you're in charge. Is your focus protecting the nation or making sure your chums keep growing their wealth?
X : The nation
Me : Ok ...
Me : Sure but it depends.
X : On what?
Me : Let us suppose you're in charge. Is your focus protecting the nation or making sure your chums keep growing their wealth?
X : The nation
Me : Ok ...
Me : ... you need to understand the supply chain, fastest way to do this is through transactional VAT data which means you need to collect it. This has other upsides - see https://ec.europa.eu/taxation_customs/system/files/2019-12/06-vat-conference-dec-2019.pdf
Me : ... the Government is going to have to intervene more extensively in the market. Think "war footing", so immediate nationalisation of energy sector plus cutting out unecessary areas of waste (energy and resources) i.e. overnight make cryptocurrencies illegal ...
Me : ... you'll need to have to tackle food security. Encourage trade, require corporations to publicly share supply chain data, education on food substitutability, prepare for rationining and heavy investment in regenerative farming along with conversion to renewable energy ...
Me : ... you need to start thinking about wealth redistribution (i.e. wealth taxes) and you'll have to bring the finance sector immediately under much stricter regulation before they kick off another CDO debacle around BNPL or student loans or more likely both ...
Me : ... you will need a Roosevelt’s "New Deal". Not a Johnson's "Here's some short change we've found which we will pretend is a lot but won't use it for this anyway" deal but a massive investment into public and local infrastructure rather than chums pockets.
Me : Which is the problem. Most of this stuff will make the chums and backers of Boris' et al less wealthy which is why I can't see us doing the right things. It would have been different with Corbyn in charge but that's not the case. All I can see is us making the wrong moves.
X : Why Corbyn?
Me : Corbyn was a person of very high integrity and a patriot. If the cost of saving the nation was bankrupting himself and all his friends, he wouldn't hesitate to save the nation. Boris is ... focused on Boris, Chums and the Nation 3rd.
Me : Corbyn was a person of very high integrity and a patriot. If the cost of saving the nation was bankrupting himself and all his friends, he wouldn't hesitate to save the nation. Boris is ... focused on Boris, Chums and the Nation 3rd.
X : Why do you bring politics into this?
Me : Do you think supply chains, critical national infrastructure, sovereignty, threatres of operation, legitimacy of Goverrnment and the market economy are somehow not political? You can't avoid the politics.
Me : Do you think supply chains, critical national infrastructure, sovereignty, threatres of operation, legitimacy of Goverrnment and the market economy are somehow not political? You can't avoid the politics.
