Summary of livestream with Aleksey Arestovych for 11 May:

1. Great reshuffle in Russia’s general staff. Gerasimov is de-facto suspended from his responsibilities. First Tank Army commander replaced. Russia’s own evaluation of its efforts is clear.

2. Internal conflicts within occupied Kherson Oblast between ‘local administration’ and FSB/GRU - the claim of readiness to join Russia today was necessary to look ‘good’ for Moscow.

3. Arestovych believes that Russia faced with reality is starting to bring political goals in accordance with military capabilities, unlike before. Backtracking has begun and Putin’s mild 9 May speech is an indication of it.

4. China’s position to respect the territorial integrity of Ukraine (including Donbas and Crimea) is a huge blow for Russia - this may mean China believes Ukraine could take back both Donbas and Crimea.

5. Kharkiv direction - Ukrainian forces approaching and in some places reaching border in Russia - however, this means little - the war is already cross-border with 10 Russian BTGs in Belgorod Oblast and Russian shelling Ukraine from there.

6. An option was offered to Russia to exchange Mariupol survivors for Russian captives. Arestovych receiving death threats from Azov fighters’ ‘wives’ - but these are most likely fakes.

7. US lend-lease and a $40 billion aid package both arriving (and quite early), Russia is likely facing a very objective defeat with this in mind which explains their re-alignment of military goals with objective reality.

8. There will be no Minsk-3. Claims by Macron regarding Ukraine’s slowdown in admittance to EU may display an attempt by Russia to find a way out behind the scenes.