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Okay everyone,
My first thread, about why western experts sound more like cheerleaders and less like analysts. And for why this is we are going to look at Michael Kofman of the Center for a New American Security. 1/10
My first thread, about why western experts sound more like cheerleaders and less like analysts. And for why this is we are going to look at Michael Kofman of the Center for a New American Security. 1/10
Who is Kofman? Well he is normally a very smart, well informed and perceptive observer of the strengths and weaknesses of Russian security forces. Here he is giving a lecture in 2019:
2/10
2/10
For those who did not want to spend an hour of their time watching in it he traces the evolution of the Russian armed forces, their strengths, their weaknesses, and even shows empathy for what it is that the Kremlin thinks. 3/10
Kofman correctly predicted Russia would invade Ukraine, and at the beginning of the war avoided cheerleading - try to ensure people saw some of the damage the Ukrainians were taking.
https://twitter.com/KofmanMichael/status/1497259604119543814
4/10
https://twitter.com/KofmanMichael/status/1497259604119543814
4/10
But then he went to this position where @ArmchairW did a fantastic takedown of:
https://twitter.com/ArmchairW/status/1517939838120464384 5/10
https://twitter.com/ArmchairW/status/1517939838120464384 5/10
So how did Kofman get from there to there? Simple - pressure to tow the line. On 20 March a missile strike by the Russian armed forces killed at least 80 Ukrainian naval infantry - though @anatoliisharii thinks it might be high as 290. https://news.sky.com/story/ukraine-war-dozens-of-soldiers-feared-dead-after-attack-on-mykolaiv-barracks-while-troops-slept-12570330
6/10
6/10
That same day this person - Professor Phillips O'Brien weighed in and said it was no big deal and called out Kofman viciously for pointing out UKR setbacks https://twitter.com/PhillipsPOBrien/status/1505450685260783616 7/10
As can be seen the stuff is pretty delusional like this part of the thread: https://twitter.com/PhillipsPOBrien/status/1505450692517011465?s=20&t=JWVGGUWCDcKE8fF1vLNboQ
There were many elite and highly ideological troops in Mariupol, most of the garrison is dead, the rest are now captured but he acts like that would nothing. 8/10
There were many elite and highly ideological troops in Mariupol, most of the garrison is dead, the rest are now captured but he acts like that would nothing. 8/10
Kofman heard about this and responded. The resulting exchange was ugly: https://twitter.com/PhillipsPOBrien/status/1505568902201360391 you can scroll back up to see it - but this was just O'Brien sneering and mocking Kofman even though O'Brien is a military history generalist and Kofman is an expert. 9/10
Thereafter Kofman posted more and more analysis that was more of the same. We can see how groupthink comes about. Those who do not toe the line get told to be quiet or lose their reputation. 10/10
