# Timing the market / stablecoins

1/ One of the common questions people have is, "Why do you not use stablecoins and instead derisk into adopted platforms. Haven't you lost money since January because of this?'

2/ Firstly - There is a rare circumstance where I do exit to stablecoins. This is during parabolic runs where the MC chart is almost vertical, unsustainable. Examples of these are Jan 18 and early 2021.

3/ In these times I go to stables because what is going to happen (a giant crash) is inevitable because the alternative is impossible (and would require all money on the planet to keep it going)

4/ I go to stables in that situation because i consider there to be an internal problem with crypto.

Outside of those times, when the future is unpredictable I don't try to predict it. In those situations crypto is moving due to external factors.

5/ News events and developments which either increase the price or drop it. These can appear out of nowhere and have a huge impact. You cannot predict it. You might think you did. You didn't. You just guessed correctly.

6/ You will get morons who everyday think they know what will happen with the market. Most are wrong, a few guess right.

7/ Currently theres peoples who are convinced they can now predict the future of crypto because in Nov/Dec they predicted a downturn due to interest rates, or some morons in January who think they predicted the impact of a war.

8/ You might look at that and think 'But weren't they correct? What they said would happen, happened'.

9/ Every month in crypto you could look and think 'The markets going to go up because X bullish event is happening soon', 'Its going to go down because Y negative event is coming soon'.

10/ These ideas are often reasonable, just as the interest rates effect was reasonable or the impact of a war. However, the issue in crypto with trading around these ideas is not with what you can see coming.

11/ Its what you can't see, in combination with the volatile impact those unknown events have.

The history of crypto is littered with the failures of people who traded on these very reasonable ideas and predictions.. and then out of nowhere, something happens to ruin it.

12/ It could be a small thing, a news event, some institution announcing it was buying BTC, or a huge catalyst, a gigantic fud bomb, an Elon Musk bitcoin announcement, and everything changes.

People have missed out on fortunes in crypto because of doing this.

13/ Often they just don't make significant money over time. They occasionally guess the market correctly, but more often than not their second guessing approach leads to them missing out on the big gains.

If you look carefully you will notice something.

14/ Find the people whove been in crypto since 2019 or earlier but yet haven't yet 'made it' and you will notice the majority of these people are these 'market predictors'.

15/ They are still here struggling, still thinking they are gigabrains, while their peers from that generation who just let things play out and didn't try second guess are now on 7-8 figures.

16/ They cannot see that their strategy, overtime, doesn't work. All they ever remember is the few times they guessed it right and keep on doing it.. while missing out on the cumulative big wins that make the difference.

17/ Thats why if you see someone talking in a 'predict the future' manner, or thinking they've correctly predicted how things would play out, you know that they don't have much experience and understanding in this game.

18/ I adapt my portfolio according to the CURRENT conditions of the market. That means if its been bad for a few weeks and doesn't look like a blip (by bad I mean low greed, things not performing, no gains) I derisk into adopted platforms.

19/ If its looking good, and has been for a few weeks, I will potentially use some funds to enter opportunities that are higher risk.

One person recently said 'I did this also but I still lost money since jan!'.

20/ It is a misunderstanding that this is done in order to minimize 'losses'. That isn't why its done. (Firstly theres no losses until you sell, its just a fluctuating portfolio value)

In bad markets I move into adopted platforms not to minimize losses, but to minimize risk.

21/ The current bad market we've had has lasted ~4 months. In that time a lot has changed. If you hold risky projects in these times, you can lose everything especially in DeFi projects in which they iterate quickly with new ones coming.

22/ For example If you bought VADER in December, not only are you down but by the time market recovers there will probably be a 'new vader'.

23/ By derisking into adopted platforms I know that when the market comes around so will my portfolio because dev-adoption isn't something that goes away easily.

24/ I don't go to stables because i'm not interested in jumping in and out of the market and missing my ride up to my portfolio profit-taking targets (as most who do this end up doing).

Will my portfolio go down in dollar value more than if its gone to stables?

25/ Maybe, but I don't care. I'm interested in higher highs and higher lows. If at this market low i'm up from where I was at the last low, or better yet, still level or higher than at the last market high, then thats a win.

26/ I know what when the next market high does come, I'm not going to be sat with regrets because I jumped and in and out trying to time things and gambled. Instead i'm going to be killing it and my targets are going to hit.

27/ “Far more money has been lost by investors trying to anticipate corrections, than lost in the corrections themselves.” Peter Lynch