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For those who don’t have a doctorate in economics, here’s what we can take away from this morning’s #GDP estimate:
The topline number doesn't tell the whole story — and it’s masking the strength of our economic recovery.
More on why the details matter
The topline number doesn't tell the whole story — and it’s masking the strength of our economic recovery.
More on why the details matter
Here’s what we know about the economy:
Consumer and business spending remained strong in Q1
The job market — the most important pillar of our economy — is booming
Unemployment has returned to pre-pandemic levels
Wages continue to rise
Consumer and business spending remained strong in Q1The job market — the most important pillar of our economy — is boomingUnemployment has returned to pre-pandemic levelsWages continue to rise
Today’s Q1 GDP topline number is largely a result of technical factors like:
- Reduced government spending
- Fewer exports & more imports
- A decrease in business inventories after a substantial buildup last year
- Reduced government spending
- Fewer exports & more imports
- A decrease in business inventories after a substantial buildup last year
In short: Technical factors related to inventory and trade made this morning’s #GDP data look worse than it actually is.
This should NOT be taken as a sign of weak underlying macroeconomic conditions. As economist @IanShepherdson said, “This is noise; not signal.”
This should NOT be taken as a sign of weak underlying macroeconomic conditions. As economist @IanShepherdson said, “This is noise; not signal.”
