For those who don’t have a doctorate in economics, here’s what we can take away from this morning’s #GDP estimate:

The topline number doesn& #39;t tell the whole story — and it’s masking the strength of our economic recovery.

More on why the details matterhttps://abs.twimg.com/emoji/v2/... draggable="false" alt="⬇️" title="Pijl omlaag" aria-label="Emoji: Pijl omlaag">https://abs.twimg.com/emoji/v2/... draggable="false" alt="🧵" title="collectie" aria-label="Emoji: collectie">

Here’s what we know about the economy:
https://abs.twimg.com/emoji/v2/... draggable="false" alt="📈" title="Grafiek met stijgende trend" aria-label="Emoji: Grafiek met stijgende trend">Consumer and business spending remained strong in Q1
https://abs.twimg.com/emoji/v2/... draggable="false" alt="👨‍🚒" title="Brandweerman" aria-label="Emoji: Brandweerman">The job market — the most important pillar of our economy — is booming
https://abs.twimg.com/emoji/v2/... draggable="false" alt="📉" title="Grafiek met dalende trend" aria-label="Emoji: Grafiek met dalende trend">Unemployment has returned to pre-pandemic levels
https://abs.twimg.com/emoji/v2/... draggable="false" alt="💵" title="Bankbiljet met dollarteken" aria-label="Emoji: Bankbiljet met dollarteken">Wages continue to rise

Today’s Q1 GDP topline number is largely a result of technical factors like:
- Reduced government spending
- Fewer exports & more imports
- A decrease in business inventories after a substantial buildup last year

In short: Technical factors related to inventory and trade made this morning’s #GDP data look worse than it actually is.

This should NOT be taken as a sign of weak underlying macroeconomic conditions. As economist @IanShepherdson said, “This is noise; not signal.”