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Little thread about Moldova/Transnistria given recent events happening. For those who haven't caught up with recent news, there were some explosions at government buildings in Transnistria..
https://www.forbes.com/sites/roberthart/2022/04/26/more-explosions-hit-moscow-backed-transnistria-as-fears-grow-moldova-will-become-a-new-front-in-russias-invasion/?sh=2e59e2ba37ff
https://www.forbes.com/sites/roberthart/2022/04/26/more-explosions-hit-moscow-backed-transnistria-as-fears-grow-moldova-will-become-a-new-front-in-russias-invasion/?sh=2e59e2ba37ff
A few days earlier, a Russian General (Rustam Minnekaev) talked about creating a "land bridge to Transnistria". What followed is a lot of panic - not among Moldovans, but mostly among western Twitterati, pundits and politicians. https://theweek.com/russo-ukrainian-war/1012882/russia-wants-to-seize-land-corridors-to-crimea-and-moldova-russian
Although we should definitely keep a close watch on events in Transnistria and shouldn't rule out anything, there is a lot of misinterpretation, fake news, unnecessary panic and a woeful misunderstanding of basic geography, culture and strategy regarding this part of Europe.
First of all, Minnekaev's remarks about the land bridge to Transnistria have been widely misunderstood/misinterpreted. Read this excellent thread why. https://twitter.com/DAlperovitch/status/1517464450760118273
Let's not forget that a) the Russian military is tied down in the Donbas, b) they were beaten back from Mykolaiv and c) they need to control Mykolaiv & Odessa first to get that land bridge.
Mykolaiv has a population of 450k, Odessa 1M. With this Russian military even struggling to capture Mariupol, a city just a few miles from the Russian border with short supply lines, how would they manage with urban warfare deeper in Ukraine? The reality just isn't there.
What I gathered from friends in Moldova/Transnistria, there is no real panic on the ground. If you see posts like the one below, don't forget that it was Orthodox Easter holiday. Lots of people from Transnistria simply return to work in Chisinau etc. https://twitter.com/EuromaidanPress/status/1518891446723612673
Military experts like Kofman - who called everything right even before the war started - frequently pointed out RU limitations. After this Donbas offensive, RU will have exhausted its offensive potential unless smth unlikely like mass conscription happens. https://twitter.com/KofmanMichael/status/1517856532976881664
Today this attack happened. Interesting, but it has *nothing* to do with any potential Russian seaborne invasion taking place south of that bridge, which somehow half of Twitter seems to believe. Chance of that is close to 0. https://twitter.com/Liveuamap/status/1518911874728878080
How on earth would Russia sustain an isolated beachhead - if they can already achieve a landing? Would they even dare such a risky move after the sinking of the Moskva? Don't forget Ukraine is prepared for such moves so it will be contested. Bottom line: This won't happen!
Again, not my opinion per se - but the words of actual experts on military affairs and people in the region. Most likely this strike has to do with Russia trying to thwart armaments deliveries to Odessa as it's the most direct way from NATO territory to the city.
Now back to Transnistria. I'm not saying there isn't any danger whatsoever. For years, Russia has thrived with creating fear, distrust and chaos in breakaway republics and adjoining regions. Heck, that's how we got into the current situation in the Donbas. Lots of psy ops.
It's certainly important to keep a close watch and be ready for any eventualities. https://twitter.com/cristivlas/status/1518890641639497728
We also don't know whether or not there might be some internal disagreements among Transnistrian leadership. I can imagine many might want to do more in support of Russia from their heart, while others know from their mind that they are not in a position and it could backfire.
Let's not forget that the war in Ukraine has put Transnistria (and Moldova) in a tough place. This article by @Keith_h96 describes it excellently (and the endorsement below by Thomas de Waal, another expert I hold in high regard, says a lot). https://twitter.com/Tom_deWaal/status/1517431849563443201
Bottom line: There may be more psyops and small "incidents" to come, but I don't really expect to see anything major happening on the ground in Transnistria as far as I can predict. Let's hope for the sake of peace and stability in the region that it will indeed be the case. /end
Extra addition: Moldovan President Maia Sandu believes recent events in Chisinau are due to tensions between different forces/factions within Transnistria. As I wrote before, this would certainly be the most logical explanation. https://www.digi24.ro/stiri/externe/maia-sandu-in-transnistria-exista-tensiuni-intre-diferite-forte-din-interiorul-regiunii-interesate-de-destabilizarea-situatiei-1918605
Final addition: This thread is well-worth reading (use Google Translate if you don't speak Dutch). Explains the complicated borders in the region & why the bridge attack is not a precursor of an attack on Moldova but a hit on NATO supply lines to Odessa. https://twitter.com/HaraldDoornbos/status/1519008430777901058
The bridge wasn't only vital for armaments deliveries but also Ukrainian exports. Besides a road, there is a railway line on it as well running from Odessa to the Ukrainian-Moldovan border at Giurgiulești where just one kilometre of Moldovan land separates Ukraine from Romania..
I walked across that sliver of Moldovan territory once from the Ukrainian border post to the Romanian one. Interesting geographic quirk but quite consequential these days..
The situation here is that there is a defunct Russian-gauge railway line from Giurgiulești to the port of Galați, which Romania is trying to rebuild ASAP. Remember: Romanian rail is on normal European gauge, Moldova & Ukraine are on Russian broad gauge. https://www.digi24.ro/stiri/economie/transporturi/ministerul-transporturilor-vrea-sa-repare-calea-ferata-dintre-portul-galati-si-rep-moldova-pentru-transportul-de-marfuri-din-ucraina-1918721
If that is completed, it would allow easy export of Ukrainian goods (mostly grain!) through Galați, which is the nearest port to Ukraine with the facilities to load goods onto ships for export to countries in Africa, Middle East. Hugely important for Ukrainian economy!
Currently Odessa is blockaded by the Russian navy so bulk carriers cannot anchor there to load Ukrainian grain and other goods for export. By damaging the bridge, Russia is setting back this Ukrainian-Moldovan-Romanian plan as well.
Apart from the missing Romanian railway link in the port of Galați, also a 21km dismantled line between Berezino (UA) - Basarabeasca (MD) needs to be rebuilt. It was already listed as a priority project by both countries before the war.
@HaraldDoornbos dit is misschien interessante toevoeging voor je draadje. De brug was ook best van belang in toekomstige plannen voor export Oekraïens graan naar de Roemeense haven Galați voor meest directe overslag op schepen naar Afrika/Midden-Oosten tijdens blokkade Odessa.
