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1/ Ukrainian Theater of War, Day 38-40: Today’s update Is a brief commentary on the state of the war. The collapse of the Kyiv-Chernihiv & Sumy Strategic Fronts & a shift of combat focus to east Ukraine will change the character of the war, not its essence. #Ukraine #UkraineWar
2/ The situation on the ground is fluid, as the remaining Russian forces withdraw from the Kyiv, Chernihiv, & Sumy Oblasts and is difficult to map. As a result, today’s update only presents a general overview of the situation across Ukraine as is currently understood.
3/ On the third day of the war I posted the following estimate of what I felt were Russia’s surmised war aims. The collapse of 2 of 3 West OSK fronts forces a reassessment of how Russia intends to accomplish its goals. More to follow in the coming days. https://twitter.com/JominiW/status/1497670934244872199?s=20&t=40VfEmKoaJHRCJxCR7kBQQ
4/ To say the stories emerging from Bucha & other liberated portions of northern Ukraine are disturbing & sickening is an understatement. Militaries that deal with civilian populations as Russia is doing are more likely to engage in systemic war crimes. https://twitter.com/jleadermaynard/status/1510911883959754754?s=20&t=40VfEmKoaJHRCJxCR7kBQQ
5/ It is clear these atrocities are meant to break the will of Ukrainian resistance. However, people who feel they are being deprived of something considered socially essential will organize in the face of danger & resist with violence if necessary to retain essential rights.
6/ There is nothing more essential to people than the inalienable right to life and self-determination. The idea of inalienable rights of life, liberty, the inviolability of the person, and resistance to oppression are the bedrock of western culture, ideas worth fighting for.
7/ Russian state-owned media continues to push articles calling for the extermination of Ukraine and to eradicate Ukrainian identity. These articles are truly horrifying, but important to read if we are to understand the effort it will take to end the war. https://twitter.com/sumlenny/status/1510910740261134338?s=20&t=40VfEmKoaJHRCJxCR7kBQQ
8/ As many analysts have state in recent days, Ukraine faces the threat of Russia’s abuse of the diplomatic process to trade space for time so it can reconstitute military power to launch new offenses to gain a more favorable position to impose its will. https://twitter.com/nataliabugayova/status/1511008462901239810?s=20&t=40VfEmKoaJHRCJxCR7kBQQ
9/ Ukraine has won an important victory, but Russia is far from done. In the near term we will continue to see small-scale offensive action intended to maintain some level of positive momentum as the Russian military attempts to recover. https://twitter.com/HN_Schlottman/status/1511058099079163905?s=20&t=40VfEmKoaJHRCJxCR7kBQQ
10/ Russia will struggle for several more weeks, but time is still on its side to reconstitute enough combat power to potentially complete the conquest of Donetsk, Luhansk, Kherson, and Zaporizhzhia Oblasts. https://twitter.com/TheEconomist/status/1510974730752471041?s=20&t=40VfEmKoaJHRCJxCR7kBQQ
11/ This will not be an easy struggle for either side. Russia will have to show more operational skill and imagination that it has in order to secure its objectives, effectively applying force in space and time to win meaningful victories.
12/ Ukraine faces the prospect of an attritional war it cannot afford, especial when it comes to its mechanized forces. Michael Kofman’s recent assessment is spot on. Ukraine does not have sufficient mechanized forces for large-scale counteroffensives. https://twitter.com/KofmanMichael/status/1510681914981683209?s=20&t=40VfEmKoaJHRCJxCR7kBQQ
13/ Though the Battle of Kyiv and NE Ukraine demonstrates what the Ukrainian military can achieve with limited resources, it is dangerous to assume it can replicate this again in the Donbas. It is more likely that, give each sides challenges, the war may become a stalemate.
14/ Only time will tell…
15/ These maps have been created by me based off the most reliable information of activity in the Ukrainian Theater of War from a variety of sources. Errors will be corrected as soon as they are identified.
16/ Information regarding Ukrainian units are meant to be general, are based on Ukrainian General Staff statements and social media posts, official Ukrainian government press releases, and local news. It does not depict current unit movements.
