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As Ukrainian forces advance, let’s look at what a decisive Ukrainian victory & full Russian defeat might mean. For over 20 years, Putin’s Russia has arguably been the main force driving extremism & undermining democracy worldwide. The stakes are very high.
A thread:
1/12
A thread:
1/12
Ukraine would rebound, with true bravery & leadership having brought eight years of occupation to an end. An era of true independence & European integration, now a century (or two) overdue, would finally open, making Ukraine a worldwide source of democratic renewal.
2/12
2/12
The Belarusian democratic movement, now mostly in exile, would find new traction inside the country. Their deflated dictator, now clinging to Putin’s last coat-tails, would be discarded. Freed from bleak diktat, Belarus would become a truly Baltic & European country.
3/12
3/12
Georgia & Moldova, both with enclaves still occupied by Russia, would be able to regain full sovereignty. Moldova has a pro-European government that deserves support. Georgia has a pro-democracy majority now demanding a better future. Both deserve to be whole & free.
4/12
4/12
The North Caucasus, terrorized & forgotten by Putin, would see their cultural & linguistic diversity restored. Chechnya & Dagestan could throw off thugs like the Kadyrovs. Kazakhstan & Central Asia would find new markets, tailoring new reforms to national realities.
5/12
5/12
Victims of Putin& #39;s lesser known wars would also benefit. Libya would lose a huge source of mischief. Venezuela might finally turn. After six Putin-linked coups in Africa over the past three years, might the Sahel & West Africa enjoy a new decade of greater stability?
6/12
6/12
Russia never stopped sponsoring terrorists. It promoted Al Qaida& #39;s anti-American turn; did victory laps with @ImranKhanPTI after Afghanistan& #39;s fall. Moscow has had the IRGC& #39;s back in Iraq, Syria, Lebanon & beyond. Russia& #39;s defeat would chasten both Iran & Pakistan.
7/12
7/12
Russia has been aggressively disrupting democracies worldwide, putting the US, UK & many others through relentless cycles of polarization. Less Russian interference would mean better policies & decisions from elected governments: a resurgence of democracies globally.
8/12
8/12
Russian belligerence, disinfo & cash have paralyzed the UN on many issues -- a condition Russia& #39;s demotion could remedy. Ukraine& #39;s success would also rescue @NATO from the paradox of a collective self-defence alliance side-stepping Ukraine& #39;s collective self-defence.
9/12
9/12
Accountability has been a lost cause so far in most 21st century wars & conflicts. Prosecution at the ICC of Russian war crimes in Ukraine would send an unmistakable message to dictators, just as sanctions to date already have: global trade must not empower tyrants.
10/12
10/12
