As Ukrainian forces advance, let’s look at what a decisive Ukrainian victory & full Russian defeat might mean. For over 20 years, Putin’s Russia has arguably been the main force driving extremism & undermining democracy worldwide. The stakes are very high.

A thread:

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Ukraine would rebound, with true bravery & leadership having brought eight years of occupation to an end. An era of true independence & European integration, now a century (or two) overdue, would finally open, making Ukraine a worldwide source of democratic renewal.

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The Belarusian democratic movement, now mostly in exile, would find new traction inside the country. Their deflated dictator, now clinging to Putin’s last coat-tails, would be discarded. Freed from bleak diktat, Belarus would become a truly Baltic & European country.

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Georgia & Moldova, both with enclaves still occupied by Russia, would be able to regain full sovereignty. Moldova has a pro-European government that deserves support. Georgia has a pro-democracy majority now demanding a better future. Both deserve to be whole & free.

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The North Caucasus, terrorized & forgotten by Putin, would see their cultural & linguistic diversity restored. Chechnya & Dagestan could throw off thugs like the Kadyrovs. Kazakhstan & Central Asia would find new markets, tailoring new reforms to national realities.

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Victims of Putin's lesser known wars would also benefit. Libya would lose a huge source of mischief. Venezuela might finally turn. After six Putin-linked coups in Africa over the past three years, might the Sahel & West Africa enjoy a new decade of greater stability?

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Russia never stopped sponsoring terrorists. It promoted Al Qaida's anti-American turn; did victory laps with @ImranKhanPTI after Afghanistan's fall. Moscow has had the IRGC's back in Iraq, Syria, Lebanon & beyond. Russia's defeat would chasten both Iran & Pakistan.

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Russia has been aggressively disrupting democracies worldwide, putting the US, UK & many others through relentless cycles of polarization. Less Russian interference would mean better policies & decisions from elected governments: a resurgence of democracies globally.

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Russian belligerence, disinfo & cash have paralyzed the UN on many issues -- a condition Russia's demotion could remedy. Ukraine's success would also rescue @NATO from the paradox of a collective self-defence alliance side-stepping Ukraine's collective self-defence.

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Accountability has been a lost cause so far in most 21st century wars & conflicts. Prosecution at the ICC of Russian war crimes in Ukraine would send an unmistakable message to dictators, just as sanctions to date already have: global trade must not empower tyrants.

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We have under-estimated at our peril the damage done by Putin's propaganda, corruption & unending wars, especially after he backed Assad with force in 2011. Putin built up a terrifying impunity through Syria's genocide, his 2014 invasion of Ukraine & Brexit/Trump.

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Ukraine is blazing a path towards a post-Putin world. To get there, Russia's defeat needs to be decisive, with Ukraine's victory reaching all its territory, airspace & coasts, including Crimea. For this to happen, full military support is needed: it depends on us.

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