My translation of the 11th #FSBletters from the #WindofChange inside the FSB. Subjects: Poland + Ukraine. Dated 3/21, that's today, & URGENT. Please share far & wide.
I will add clarification comments inside parenthesis where necessary. Let's start:

"You may recall that even before the war with Ukraine, I wrote you about the preparations of anti-Polish provocations.

At that time, there was a catastrophically botched technical result when Polish soldier Emil Chechko escaped to Belarus, who told of the hundreds and thousands of refugees whom the Poles allegedly shot en-masse in the forests. (This claim was blatantly false, failed RU psyop)

Well, it’s impossible to simply forget such prepared material, when the people at the very top were involved in said preparation.

To forget means to accept the plan as ineffective & problematic. In the current situation that admission would threaten an exemplary flogging of the people in charge.

In addition, the question of Poland as a new possible target has not been dismissed and is not going to be dismissed. I will try to list the key points:

- Poland is the main supply channel for Ukraine. Including military supplies;

- Even in the case of a theoretical victory over Ukraine, although it is not even clear what that might look like, it would be Poland that would become "Ukraine in exile," reducing the effect of victory to a minimum;

- The use of tactical nuclear weapons against Ukraine would mean Russia's defeat in the eyes of both adversaries and neutral countries: such a powerful argument (act) for a local conflict would demonstrate military weakness, which not even any military success could override.

Therefore, to possibly intimidate the West, such strikes could, very much hypothetically, be carried out against Poland; (Meaning as an empty threat only)

- The situation in Ukraine transforms Poland into a powerful economic beneficiary with a simultaneous growth of absolute anti-Russian sentiments there:

a huge inflow of refugees, among whom there is a high percentage of both the wealthy & young able-bodied, the role of Western aid transiting into the country; assistance from other countries, etc.

For Russia, and Belarus, too, the example of Poland's rapid economic and military breakthrough is turning into a huge threat;

- Poland is enlarging its army. In addition, this is where Ukraine's military can be withdrawn if Ukraine loses, and in Russia too many people in power believe that there is clearly too much (for the Polish army) to defend, which means Poland is preparing for an attack on Russia.

That is why a conditional (just in case) "anti-Polish bridgehead" is now being actively prepared.

The dead Emil Chechko will also play his part: at any moment the Polish special services will be accused of his murder, which will amount to an "attack on Belarus" with the corresponding invocation of the clause on mutual military assistance (between Russia & Belarus).

(Emil Chechko was found dead, hanged, in Belarus on March 17th, 2022.)

Medvedev's anti-Polish passage is also part of this "sentiment conditioning.” (preparing the Russian people to accept an attack on Poland as a necessity, and shore up public support in Russia for such action) https://twitter.com/maxfras/status/1505843869707116547

The only counterweight to this – absence of concrete strategy for Russian leadership’s behavior.

When decisions are made literally on a knee-jerk and ad hoc basis, the risk for mistakes goes off the charts, and any decisions already made can be changed just as rapidly.

But at the moment, the risks of a military operation against Poland are steadily increasing, and there are no guarantees for anything in today's Russia.

(INTERMISSION) (Will finish translation later. The rest is about Ukraine. I've been going non-stop for weeks now and I am exhausted. Please see this thread for insight on why I am doing this, and what I believe: https://twitter.com/igorsushko/status/1503475294316900353?s=20&t=XOGS0Vv7LqZpRIukzwcaIg

(Big takeaway, although unsurprising, from the 2nd half of the letter:
Mass "cleansing" is being planned for Kherson as they are unable to get the civilian population to submit to Russian rule. Russian leadership has instructed those on the ground to "stop playing with them" & )

(a "Big Terror" will happen in Kherson. Kremlin is prepared to eliminate up to half of Kherson's population of ~300,000, optics be damned, to get Kherson to submit on its knees to Russia. Genocide. And - assertion that Russia has completed its transformation into a fascist state)