1/ # Who are the good CT accounts to follow and who is a moron

I often say that there are no good accounts and bad accounts. Its all shilling. Its all information that that you should expose yourself to (but not believe)

2/ That said, there are things in the shilling you can look at to know how much the person shilling gets it.

3/ The #1 sign that a person on CT is clueless is that that they make predictions about $BTC or upcoming bear markets and dips based on external factors.

4/ Every single day and hour in crypto since its inception, some moron somewhere is predicting a bear market, a dip, whilst giving reasoning as to why they believe it will happen.

5/ Occasionally a dip or downturn occurs and a set of people who at that time happened to say one would happen proclaim how they were right and how their analysis was correct.

6/ This happened recently in November onwards. We've had a sequence of events which resulted in a market downturn. Omicron. Uncertainty around rates. War.

You can only know when looking backwards what caused the downturn. You can't know going forward.

Why?

7/ Because while you may know some events or uncertainties that you can see coming such as world events like rate increases, you do not know the unknown positive events that will come also.

8/ The outcome is the result of an expression with variables, with you only having an idea of a few of them. (This also happens to be one of the main reasons TA is dumb.

9/ Future prices are not based on past price data, nor is their sufficient information in the past price data to 'provide probabilities'. The future price is determined by events yet to occur).

10/ As Peter Lynch once said: "Far more money has been lost by investors preparing for corrections, or trying to anticipate corrections, than has been lost in corrections themselves."

11/ In crypto, with its extreme volatility, that is especially the case. When someone makes these kinds of predictions it doesn't just demonstrate they don't understand the above, it also demonstrates that they don't understand what crypto is as an emerging technology or market.

12/ They don't understand how emerging technologies work.

What do I mean by this? Something like crypto comes along rarely. When it does it has the ability to go against other markets due to it being in a 'birth era'.

13/ The global economy could be in a bad state but due to the easy gains as a technology breaks through such as the internet, smartphones, home computers, the market of that tech can still provide huge gains.

14/ You may think you have some great idea as to why there will be a market crash next month and tomorrow Elon Musk announces that $ETH will be the currency of his mars base, or some ETF development comes out of nowhere.

15/ This is why I say to not bother attempting to predict market downturns and just focus on being in the best investments for the current market and to take profits to FIAT in the good times. You do not know when the bottom will be.

Most people on CT don't understand this.

16/ Why? Because they don't have followers due to their understanding or knowledge on tech. In almost all cases they have no significant experience in technology or software development.

17/ They have followers because through 2020/2021 they bought the currently shilled tokens early due to their networked connections and every single day tweeted those with cash tags. In a run anyone can easily get 50K+ followers just by tweeting like this.

18/ Theres many people in CT who are outright BS'rs who will say whatever they have to in order to shill and don't believe a word of what they're saying. The reality however is that most of CT believes they are crypto tech experts. That they can find 'gems'.

19/ That they have 'alpha'. They 'called' some tokens that pumped through 20/21, got rich, got followers and now believe they are a 'crypto expert'.

The reality is they don't have a clue about anything except how to shill or network. How do I know they don't have a clue?

20/ Because I have spoken with most of them either in CT channels or in private messages. Anyone with significant experience in tech or software dev will know exactly what I'm talking about.

21/ This has nothing to do with coding or computer languages but about experience in understanding the processes by which software is created and about how tech companies operate.

22/ They will see a project with no product, only a really great plan, and some good devs and state in conversation how they think its a great buy. They will see a mainnet launch and say "Oh look they delivered. I think this is a great buy".

23/ Someone with experience will immediately see this stuff and know: "This person has no idea". Why? Because that isn't how software works. If all you needed was a plan and good devs, every startup in Silicon Valley would be a billion dollar business.

24/ They don't have the experience to know what factors result in platform adoption. What it takes to create something on the scale of an @ethereum . How difficult some of these ideas and plans are to achieve.

25/ They don't have the experience of being in these types of companies to know whats BS, unrealistic and whats not. Because of this they often honestly believe that $XYZ crappy platform might be the next $ETH.

26/ They don't understand that a mainnet launch of some software means nothing until teams look at it, carrying out analysis and chose to adopt it.

27/ The claims of a platform mean nothing until its getting adoption and put under load and demonstrates its stability, security and scalability.

28/ If you want to see an example of what I'm talking about, and have the opportunity, watch how crypto influencers behave when in conversation with people with experience working in crypto. You will notice (if they are smart) they usually don't say as much as they usually do.

29/ Why? Because they know that its very easy for them to be exposed by making a comment on something, to a person whos going to see by that comment that they have very little understanding or experience.

30/ Are there people in crypto who know and understand all this? Yes, a lot. However most of them have no interest in being an influencer and at most have a few thousand followers or are working in the crypto industry building projects themselves.

31/ If you want to see some great crypto content of people who do understand this stuff, i'd recommend checking out @brad_laurie 's channel and youtube interviews.

32/ Do you need to know any of this stuff? No.

All you need to do is trust in quality adoption that you can see happening. (Not adoption the project tells you is happening but doesn't give details on because of 'NDAs')

Why?

33/ Because that demonstrates to you that teams WHO DO UNDERSTAND THE ABOVE have looked at that project and decided its good for their app and are putting their money/resources/time into adopting it.

34/ You are knowing whats good by using the teams actions, knowing that they carried out the analysis that you yourself can't do/are not in the a position to do.

35/ Thats the metric you should trust, not some former Mcdonalds worker who's now a 'crypto influencer', telling you how $XYZ platform is a great buy because its just launched its mainnet, is only x mc and has some great devs and amazing plans.

36/ You can know who 'gets it' by looking at what they are shilling. This is especially the case if they are shilling platforms.

Crypto is a world where the biggest voices in it, are the most clueless about the very thing they are talking about.

37/ This is why I repeat time and time again, do not believe anything you read. Read and understand the shill and see if theres an opportunity, but don't allow yourself to be shilled with BS.