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1/ # What is undervalued or low risk, why adoption matters, and how to know a platform is a good investment?
A lot of people have been asking why I consider $NEAR $ROSE undervalued, but other platforms/projects not?
A lot of people have been asking why I consider $NEAR $ROSE undervalued, but other platforms/projects not?
2/ A lot of people look at a project and view it as undervalued for the wrong reasons or because they are deluded.
To determine if something is undervalued you look at the project as objectively as possible and look at the facts you can see and what they are DELIVERING
To determine if something is undervalued you look at the project as objectively as possible and look at the facts you can see and what they are DELIVERING
3/ Something is not undervalued because 'Its only X MC and says it will do/build Y'. Is something being a low MC good? Yes, but that alone means nothing. A low MC is only useful if it will go up significantly, AND do so safely with low risk.
4/ You cannot know in advance what platform will 'make it' to become a $NEAR $SOL $AVAX . Yes, there are factors you can see early on that are promising such as the team, the quality of its VCs (who will have done thorough research into the teams plans).
5/ But all of this isn't enough. Theres too many unknowns.
6/ A good analogy for platforms is like young sports star with potential in say Football (soccer). At 11 year old there may be a kid signed to an agent whos pushing him as the next Lionel Messi and superstar of the 2034 Worldcup.
7/ Apart from the fact the agent could be full of shit, its impossible to know this far in advance due all the things that need to go right along the way (and the things which could go wrong)
8/ You will get people saying 'Oh but X project has 6 PHDs on the team and also the former CTO of [some big company]!', and? if success in the software industry was determined on the basis of how skilled your developers are, thered never be any failures in Silicon Valley.
9/ Theres not only unknowns in what happens with the team such as people could leave, there could be a scandal, some flaw in the technology, but the market and crypto scene can change by the time they get to the adoption stage.
With platforms developer adoption is everything.
With platforms developer adoption is everything.
10/ Over the last few years there have been hundreds of L1 platform projects. How many of these have got significant/real adoption? Very few.
11/ Most of these failures were called undervalued, shilled on whitepaper promises, its technical specs and capabilities. People invested, some made money, most didn't.
12/ Having a smart team with a great idea, 'seeming' to make progress isn't enough. You don't know. The proof comes with dev adoption.
13/ An example of this $HTR . This project has been going for years. It has a massive community, a technically skilled team, backed by a lot of CT accounts. It should have been billions in MC by late 2020.
14/ Its still not achieved any of that and is now far behind other L1s with no significant real adoption taking place. From an investor POV it has been a huge waste of potential, but it demonstrates that you can't know.
15/ Everyone is currently shilling $AZERO . Why are they shilling it? Because they choose to participate in the sale and the token is now on exchanges. Thats it. It isn't because its going to be big (even though it in theory might), or because of anything its doing.
16/ They don't know if it will. ( No amount of PHDs or 'peer review' can tell you that) Its simply that they thought it sounded shillable, bought it in the sale and now use the plans of the project to shill it to make gains.
17/ This project sounded promising in 2018-19. Many thought by now it would be huge. It never happened. Its now 2022. Projects from the same era such as $AVAX and $NEAR are way ahead, 12-18months into their ecosystem building phase.
18/ Meanwhile $AZERO has only just launched mainnet and is 18-24months from being close to getting significant adoption (though probably longer given how slow they are). Can you make money investing in these? Possibly yes. But you are exposed to risk.
19/ The less adoption, the less you KNOW for sure, the lower the MC needs to be.
You might look at $HTR and think 'its only 150M, this can easily get gains'. In a good market it might go up, but with no adoption it can easily fall back, leaving buyers rekt.
You might look at $HTR and think 'its only 150M, this can easily get gains'. In a good market it might go up, but with no adoption it can easily fall back, leaving buyers rekt.
20/ Look at $KDA for example. it went from $1 to $30 and then fell back to $5. Those who bought higher did so being shilled $100-$200. That it was 'the next to do a $SOL ', they didn't check to see if it was getting adoption.
21/ Now many are wrecked, down 80%, whilst the people who shilled them have long since sold and took their gains happy with their 'I did 30x' story. How does this happen? Because with just shilling and no adoption, theres nothing to hold up the price.
22/ In 2020 I would invest in many low MC platforms like these (including $HTR) but I wouldn't now. Why? Because we are far along into the adoption phase. From the field of projects that launched in 2017/18 we are entering the phase where adoption is kicking in.
23/ The adoption happening right now and through this year is going to probably determine the platform scene for the next 5-10 years. As this happens, these lower MC ones, or those with no adoption are going to find it increasingly difficult to 'shill' their adoption narrative.
24/ This is why I never usually invest in platforms until they demonstrate adoption. With $DOT $KSM $SOL $NEAR $ROSE I followed the same policy. I don't care if I could have got them cheaper earlier on. I take a low risk approach. I buy when they demonstrate adoption.
25/ Someone recently accused me of being involved in some kind of pump scheme on my holdings. Their basis for this was 'Everything he buys is up since Novembers crash', completely failing to see that I specifically invest in undervalued projects that can perform like this.
26/ So how are projects such as $NEAR $ROSE different? Because when people shill a NEAR they don't have to do it on just claims/plans from a project. They are much further along than that. Theyre shilling on it on real things happening.
27/ The PROVEN technical performance that its showing in production as projects run on it, the ecosystem grant funding its amassed from across the entire VC spectrum, the developer adoption statistics that can be independently viewed, and most importantly the number of
28/ projects choosing to build on it. We can see this stuff happening. As I've mentioned in other threads, watching developer adoption is the easiest/surest ways to make money in crypto. Most people don't look at this stuff.
29/ They buy when they see the projects launching on it and the price is already starting to move. The smart people buy when they see the adoption taking off and know that in X months, this is going to translate into PA.
30/ This is how smart people made fortunes on $ETH in 2016/17 and $DOT $KSM $SOL in 2020/21. Seeing significant adoption happening is like knowing the lottery numbers in advance.
This is why I am so bullish on $NEAR .
This is why I am so bullish on $NEAR .
31/ I can buy here knowing that no matter what the market does, as this huge amount of dev adoption taking place behind the scenes (yet independently viewable) breaks through (driven by the $1B+ in ecosystem funding), its going to move up in MC.
