1/ # Market rant

Theres a lot of questions about market crashes and when to worry, and also a lot of flawed comparisons to prior to markets.

In this thread i'll cover when you should worry and when not to worry.

2/ I mentioned in the thread below that medium term nobody has to be concerned by the market (aslong as you buy well) as regardless of world markets, crypto is going to expand a lot and create further speculation. https://twitter.com/marwolwarl/status/1480792619680628741?s=20

3/ However, were currently in a downturn. When we have has these downturns, we don't know how long they'll last. This current one has gone on since Nov. It could have lasted 1 week/1 month/2 months. Nobody knows. Its only when looking back we know 'This downturn lasted since X'

4/ Anyone who tells you that in October, November, December, or any point in the past, that they foresaw we'd be today at 35K $BTC, is a complete clueless moron.

5/ We are here not because of anything that can be seen in past chart data. We are here because of events that happened in the world, which led to this.

6/ Omicron, Russia's attempts to ban crypto, tech stock correcting back, combined with a lot of manipulation and fud from those that wanted $BTC lower, and not enough positive events happening within crypto to offset these things. Thats it. It isn't predictable.

7/ Some might say 'Well I knew tech stocks would correct, which in turn would hit $BTC '. Even that isn't enough. As that happened there could've been some positive event which occurred to countered it. You can't predict the future of the market from looking at charts, don't try.

8/ Some people ask 'How did you handle May 2021?'. A May situation is very different to now. Those are market wide alt runs.

9/ Those alt runs are when a variety of rare factors align. Greed high, and new dumb retail money floods into crypto. They're easily shilled and this new money floods the whole market. Everything goes up. They are extremely rare. We had one in 2017, and we had one in early 2021.

10/ We don't even know if a further one is ever possible again due to how large the crypto alt MC is now. This is the basis of my belief that from here we will no longer get market wide runs, but instead small 'sector specific' ones.

11/ Examples of these are the DeFi summer of 2020 or the recent metaverse/gaming run in Sep-Nov 2021. These are very different to market wide alt runs I am referring to. When crashes/corrections happen after these they are much more limited.

12/ Why do I say Market wide alt runs are an exception to my rule of not trying to predict the market? Because in those times you can know a crash is coming. How? Because the alt MC chart is going near-vertical, growing at a completely unsustainable level.

13/ A market full of speculation and junk all trying to cash in on the abundance of money. They can't keep going and eventually it implodes. The whole market then slowly corrects down with the 'junk' going back to the levels it should be at, and then greed begins to return.

14/ In these market wide alt runs you need to first identify that we are in one. You will know this by looking at the market. Is crypto full of new money?, with every few days something doing big x's 5-10x. Are junk projects across the spectrum easily getting gains.

15/ Is the alt MC climbing at a rate that is unsustainable? Where is that money going? is it going into junk or is going into solid projects. This is why you need to look at. Theres no guide you can read to learn this stuff, it takes experience and time.

16/ Once you know we are in a run. DO NOT TRY TO GUESS how far into we are or how long it will last. Nobody ever gets it right.

17/ You may be able to watch and identify a sense that the market is getting faster and faster and more and more unsustainable but its impossible to say at which point it will collapse. What you do need to do is try identify when its over.

18/ Most people screw this up by being in denial. The reason for that is that during a market run there will be multiple times when things crash for a few days, or a few weeks, then it recovers and the run goes on.

19/ When the final crash does come people then refuse to believe its the real thing and just call it a dip.

20/ My own method is to watch the sentiment. If after a big speculative bubble crashes, the market is dead, greed gone, retail money fleeing (They always leave very quickly), nothing popping. Then I go to tether as its likely to take many weeks/months to correct down.

21/ In May 2021 I used a similar method to this but I combined both approaches.

22/ In late March 2021 I cashed out to FIAT 75% of my portfolio due to believing the bubble would imminently implode (although I was 6-7 weeks early), then in late May when it was obvious the market was over I tethered the remaining.

23/ So why is this different to the situation that is happening right now, how do you know its not just denial?

24/ The biggest reason is, despite what some people will tell you, prior to this crash we were not in an 'alt-run'. We haven't been in one of those since prior to May 2021. From the Jul bottom the market increased a lot to Novembers high but it wasn't an alt-run.

25/ Look at where the bulk of that money went. It wasn't a retail driven degen bubble of junk, but a gradual reintroduction of money that left the market in May 2021, and reentered into mostly 'solid' high cap projects.

26/ In November when the market began to crash, we were not in a bubble. It didn't crash because of something to do with the state of the market or it being unsustainable. The markets crash since then has been nothing to do with that, but instead due to EXTERNAL FACTORS.

27/ Those listed earlier in the thread. This is why I don't tether in these situations. We are not crashing because the market is in an unsustainable bubble, but purely because of something happening in the world which then effects the crypto markets, and could end at any moment.

28/ So in summary, when should you worry? Answer: When we are in a market wide speculative bubble. In those times take profits aggressively. Be prepared for it to end any day or week (you won't know when).

29/ When it then crashes and greed leaves the market. Exit to tether until things calm down. If we are not in a market wide bubble prior to the crash, then don't worry. When the external factors that are causing the drop go, the market will return.

30/ Why do I not tether in these situations too? Because we don't know long they will last. It could be days, or weeks, or a few months. Also you will notice that in these 'crashes due to external conditions' there are still gains happening.

31/ For instance many people have made a lot of money since November in various plays across the market. In a 'real crash' (after the bubble) these gains don't happen. The market will be almost devoid of gains of greed. That is how you will know the difference.

32/ Why do these external things effect crypto so much?. Crypto runs on speculation and is heavily manipulated. Anything external to crypto will be used as an excuse to push down the market and its hard to cultivate greed/speculation if that external force is strong.

33/ These stories/events can be used to push an agenda on an investor base which is easily shilled/fudded. So the answer is really that: Because most people in crypto are dumb and are easily fudded.

34/So what am I doing in these times? Nothing different. Because I don't buy junk, I don't need to worry. Everything that I buy must be something which can survive a downturn. Like I have mentioned before, since November we have been in a cagey 'smart money' market.

35/ There is gains to get if you are clever but you have to be careful because at any moment the market can crash (as it has). Adapt your portfolio as the market changes.

36/ In doing this I know that as soon as $BTC settles the money is going to flood back into platforms and infrastructure, why? Because they are being built on and adopted.

37/ Projects don't stop building on platforms just because $BTC falls. NFT/DeFi/Gaming projects, all of them continue to develop at an ever increasing rate on these platforms and billions of dollars are being invested in ecosystem grants by VCs.

38/ This is why my portfolio is so heavily weighed towards $NEAR and $ROSE , with them taking up 70-80% of it, because once the market returns, not only will they go back up, but in the time since the crash their ecosystems have developed even further with even more dev adoption

39/ and more of the projects within the ecosystem advancing and coming through. This is why I recommend investing in platforms and infrastructure like these over dApps within ecosystems.

40/ This is what the people who think we are in a 'cycle' don't understand. This isn't 2018. 2018 nobody was putting significant money into crypto. It was dead. By this im not talking about money coming into $BTC. I'm talking about investment in platforms and projects.

41/ The levels of investment in platform ecosystems is at a record high and increasing by the month. This isn't stopping because of any 'external market factors' or $BTC falling. It goes on. These projects are launching regardless of them.

42/ Developers are pivoting in huge numbers from 'web 2.0' to 'web 3.0'. This is the emergence of a new technology field and the speculation will be rampant as it does so. Invest well with a good strategy and you can 'ride it up' and make significant gains.