Read on Twitter
1/
Looking at 10 MOST-VAXED states, and 10 LEAST-VAXED states, we see that comparing Year-of-Year % change, there is virtually NO DIFFERENCE...
Except that NOW, the 10 most-vaxed have nearly 400% HIGHER cases than last year, where 10 LEAST-vaxed, "only" up 112%.
Looking at 10 MOST-VAXED states, and 10 LEAST-VAXED states, we see that comparing Year-of-Year % change, there is virtually NO DIFFERENCE...
Except that NOW, the 10 most-vaxed have nearly 400% HIGHER cases than last year, where 10 LEAST-vaxed, "only" up 112%.
2/
The large difference (nearly 4x) b/n % increase in YoY cases b/n 10 most-vaxed & 10 least-vaxed may be explained by vaxes negative efficacy (increased likelihood of infection) for omicron.
Neg efficacy means more vax = more cases--which we see. https://twitter.com/TracyBethHoeg/status/1478546532634804224
The large difference (nearly 4x) b/n % increase in YoY cases b/n 10 most-vaxed & 10 least-vaxed may be explained by vaxes negative efficacy (increased likelihood of infection) for omicron.
Neg efficacy means more vax = more cases--which we see. https://twitter.com/TracyBethHoeg/status/1478546532634804224
3/
No doubt some will say that "well, more cases no big deal, so long as people are vaxed, it protects from severe disease." Yes, but there are caveats.
The divergence in % changes in death in lower right, could be concerning.
No doubt some will say that "well, more cases no big deal, so long as people are vaxed, it protects from severe disease." Yes, but there are caveats.
The divergence in % changes in death in lower right, could be concerning.
4/
Vax rates in nearly every state are 90%+ for 65+; most 95-99% w/1 dose. The diff between single vax and double vax in 65+ is not likely due to some kind of late-budding anti-vax sentiments. It's likely due to bad rxns.
spread means risk for these fragile people.
Vax rates in nearly every state are 90%+ for 65+; most 95-99% w/1 dose. The diff between single vax and double vax in 65+ is not likely due to some kind of late-budding anti-vax sentiments. It's likely due to bad rxns.
spread means risk for these fragile people.
5/
Given repeated studies showing negative vax efficacy--immediately in the case of Omicron, the current push to vax everyone, even kids who are not at-risk, and previously infected, may well be putting elderly who are two fragile to get two doses at risk.
Given repeated studies showing negative vax efficacy--immediately in the case of Omicron, the current push to vax everyone, even kids who are not at-risk, and previously infected, may well be putting elderly who are two fragile to get two doses at risk.
6/
If this were the case, these mandates, in addition to being ineffective, and morally reprehensible could also worsen the results for the most at-risk.
If this were the case, these mandates, in addition to being ineffective, and morally reprehensible could also worsen the results for the most at-risk.
7/
Here are the cases and deaths/million for each of the 10 states of each kind, by year. It seems that the variant you get during your season, is what drives everything. South got screwed w/Delta, North got lucky w/Omicron (but unlucky w/alpha).
Here are the cases and deaths/million for each of the 10 states of each kind, by year. It seems that the variant you get during your season, is what drives everything. South got screwed w/Delta, North got lucky w/Omicron (but unlucky w/alpha).
