1/ # 3.5 Are you early or late to the narrative?

The most crucial part of doing this is working out if its a good investment and if you are early. Many of these accounts will shill absolute crap. Why?

2/ Because its possible they got into the sale or bought very early, or are vested and are shilling to keep the price up while they await their tokens. They might be shilling you that it will do 20x, when in reality they don't need it to do 20x. They might already be 20x up.

3/ They just want it to stay at least the price it is now until they get their tokens unlocked and then they'll sell.

You then want to determine how early you are. The earlier you are the less risk.

4/ You will get CT accounts who say things like "See!, I told everyone they should buy and that more x's were to come and its now done another 5x!!". Maybe you didn't buy because you thought you found it too late after everyone else already bought.

5/ Regardless of whether it went up, you made the right call. Just because occasionally something does that, doesn't mean you should take it as a strategy. Stick to statistics and risk analysis. If youre not early, pass. Another one will come.

6/ How do you determine how early you are? Look at the chart. Look at what you think it can do on its narrative based on the project type.

Find projects that are similar. Check the MC’s of these projects and what stage they are at.

7/ Often you'll find these used in the shill narrative “This is like buying XYZ early. XYZ is 1B MC, this is only 40mil MC!!!, huge gains to come”. You need to examine these claims and realistically compare the projects and what the narrative is capable of.

8/ People might say a project is the next LINK, yet it has no hope of ever achieving the LINK MC because it doesn’t have the fundamentals. That doesn’t mean it won’t be a good investment though.

9/ For example, it may only be 3mil MC and you believe it can do 30mil MC based on other oracles similar to it doing at least that. That’s 10x in gains even though fundamentally its not very good.

10/ Through immersing yourself in crypto you will begin to see what worked/what doesn't, and then see similarities in new opportunities.