1/ # 2.3 The Tech that matters

For the most part you don't need to understand how the tech works, but you should learn and understand a bit about how software development works. This will let you know what elements of a projects ideas and plans sound realistic.

2/ If youre invested in some tech which targets business/enterprise, has clients in the business world, then the tech is mostly irrelevant to your investment.

3/ In most cases you won't know what the real level of 'adoption' of that tech is and will only have the companies word for it ('We have 100 clients').

4/ In this speculative era all that matters in those types of investments is the perception of the tech and maybe some news it generates.

On the otherhand 'crypto' tech is different.

5/ An example of this are things such as Crypto platforms ($ETH $NEAR $DOT $AVAX $SOL) and Oracles ($LINK $BAND). Infrastructure which other crypto projects use to run their project.

6/ The adoption of this tech can be seen much more clearly, more transparently and get price speculation based on that info.

7/ In this rant im going to explain adoption of these platforms and how to differentiate the solid ones from the not solid and why the ones that claim they will be big, usually won't be.

8/ Understanding this will help you also understand adoption of crypto infrastructure in general.

Blockchain platforms such as $ETH $AVAX $NEAR are platforms upon which teams and projects build their dApps.

9/ When a team decides to do build on a platform it needs to choose carefully. In most cases, they're not going to build on your crappy low/mid cap MC L1 platform. Why? Because they are going to invest a lot of time and money building on a platform. Becoming dependent on it.

10/ They don't want to have to rewrite it on another. They need to trust that its going to be around in X years, that its going to be maintained, that others will build on it. That theres vast resources online for learning to work and build on it for when they run into problems.

11/ That theres a big ecosystem of other devs/teams working on it so their team can go ask questions to get help on problems/issues they are having. It needs to be a huge open-source collaborative effort.

12/ To make a successful blockchain platform is similar in size and difficulty as making a new operating system and getting it adopted, or a new format of media such as a next gen BLU-RAY. Its very very difficult and requires huge resources.

13/ Look back at the last 3-4 years of L1s which made big claims and failed to get momentum.

14/ If back then you'd decided to build your project on them and invested 18months+ building your software at a cost of millions, you would be screwed now (which is why nobody did build on it).

15/ You will notice a common theme in platforms of "ecosystem grants" or "development funds". In the current era most adoption of platforms outside of $ETH requires grants from the platform in order to encourage teams to do it.

16/ Without grants they'll be less inclined to do it and will go with a competitor or stick to $ETH. If a platform doesn't have a huge grant fund, the platform will not go anywhere. You can determine how realistic a project is in its ambitions based on this fund.

17/ If it says its the next $ETH and has a fund of less than $50 - forget it. It needs to hundreds of millions at a minimum.

Despite its current issues, the majority of crypto projects build on the $ETH ecosystem and will continue to do so. Why?

18/ Because that is where the adoption is, it has massive unrivaled support and it isn't going to disappear, and there's vast resources available. Developers don't care that theres something faster.

19/ Being faster means nothing if that something is built by a few guys at a company who may not be around in 12months. It's too much risk. $ETH however does have its problems. This is where most L1s currently pitch their narrative. Claiming to be superior to ETH in some way.

20/ That projects launching on them will get better performance and scaling. But there's a problem with that narrative. Despite what you are told $ETH isn't sitting around doing nothing, content with its 99% market share. It's developing $ETH 2.0.

21/ You've probably heard how ETH 2.0 is "many years away", or will never come. This is not the case and in mid 2022 big developments will happen on that front. The majority of projects will continue to choose to build on it.

22/ How I see the platform space playing out is similar to the operating system market. $ETH is going to be the dominant platform like Windows, with 80% market share with 2nd and 3rd sharing 15% with the rest made up of platforms that meet niche needs of various projects.

23/ This doesn't mean you can't make money in projects that can't realistically compete with $ETH. But you do need to look at their current MC and POTENTIAL MC based on what you realistically think the project can do.

24/ If you see a project that says its the next $LINK but you think it doesn't have the team to do it, you might still invest if the MC is low enough to make you think it can get gains regardless.