1/ # 1.2 Understanding that these are speculation era prices

This might all seem bleak so far, but it gets worse. We are in speculation driven era. The prices you see today are based on extreme speculation (people buying because they are shilled it will go up).

2/ These are not demand-driven prices (from people buying to use the token based on its tokenomics/utility). These tokens have been shilled on a speculative best-case scenario narrative that creates a price that has no hope of ever happening in the adoption demand-driven era.

3/ These crypto alt tokens are a giant ponzi scheme. It is a huge speculative bubble. By this I mean almost every utility alt is vastly overpriced and will at some point drop down.

How can this be the case?

4/ Because Crypto works by shilling you an ever improving dream-case scenario.

5/ Its shilling you a future price in which theres the perfect market, massive demand, everything about the project and technology works great, gets adopted, everything going right in the project, and outside of it, in the best possible way and also includes all the above…

6/ …delusions and falsehoods being true. Creating a speculative price that will never be matched in the adoption driven era. Why?, because thats what any salesman or company would do. They will always try sell you the best case.

7/ That token you see is getting "adopted" right now that maybe worth 100 dollars, could very well be worth 50c in the demand-driven era. You don't think so? Ask yourself, how much of the current trading activity of that token is actual demand-thru-usage? Almost none.

8/ The price may have been increasing for years, building a "price foundation" of what speculative crypto traders think its worth and as things develop with the project people then assume its worth even more, but none of that is from real adoption and demand.

9/ Nobody knows how the project will do, whether its solution is relevant to the problems of the future, and whether the external market is even their for and it how much. The prices today that exist for utility tokens are complete speculative crap.

10/ Is some of this technology going to go on and be part of the future infrastructure of the 'Web3.0' and DeFi? Yes absolutely. This technology is going to change a lot of things. Most of that will occur within enterprise blockchain solutions in which a token isn't involved.

11/ That alt utility token you hold probably isn't going to play a part in it. It probably won't even be around in 2 years. Of the small minority that remain, you don't know the true adoption-driven era value of it!

Aside from all this the technology is going to rapidly iterate.

12/ The token you own today is like speculatively buying lots of software licenses for copies of an upcoming operating system in 1992 which you later hope to sell for more than retail price (for the sake of the analogy lets say there is a fixed no. of licenses).

13/ Youre told that as Desktop PCs spread around the world, those licenses you own will soar in value as everyone will need an OS to run on their computer, and within 10-15 years you will be rich from them. The problem is that 1. The OS has to be delivered as expected 2.

14/ has to get adoption 3. within a couple of years it'll be worthless because OS's in 1992 are evolving at an extreme rate. When Windows95 comes out, nobody will buying your stack of licenses. This final point is why its so important to emphasize that TOKENS are not STOCK.

15/ If you owned stock in Microsoft, then regardless of the lifespan of the software product they are producing, their success is your success as you own part of the business. With tokens however you don't.

16/ You just own a token that has some relevance to a particular software product. When that software is finished/no longer relevant, they may go on and make something else, the stock holders will continue to have success, but your token is worthless!

17/ Some people will say "oh they wouldnt do that, they'll make sure the token has relevant into the future!". Why would they? They want rid of the token holders at the earliest opportunity. Token holders have served their purpose. They bought into the ICO.

18/ They propped up the price while the team tokens and their partners got their vested unlocks and exited. When the tokens are gone, the holders are nothing but a hindrance. They bring no benefit in the future (and in fact bring a lot of problems)

19/ In 2016-17 a company could do an ICO with just a whitepaper and the promise of some world changing tech being delivered in a few years. The ICO would sell out. In 2018 we got a huge crash and an 18 month bear market, why?

20/ Because everyone could see it was all either worthless ICOs or on the "good stuff", nothing was close to happening. All the big projects were still deep in development, still a year+ from beginning to do anything.

21/ In those conditions greed couldn't be cultivated, but the door was left open for it to recover and the speculative bullshit to start once those crypto got closer to maturity. In 2020 it began again with DeFi.

22/ If Crypto is a card game, we are approaching the point where the hands get shown. Projects can no longer just work on the promise of something happening in 2-3 years. In 2021 if you don't have a live product either now and coming very soon then your sale won't do well.

23/ This is why when the market crashed in May it recovered so quickly. People can sense we are approaching the moment of truth and bought back in. The "Adoption era" is coming.

The adoption era is when the usage and metrics get seen. The hands are revealed.

24/ People can see what actual adoption is happening. What the demand really is going to be like. I often liken the crypto alt game to a game whereby groups of people trade closed/sealed boxes containing unknown objects with notes on the box describing (shilling) the contents.

25/ These boxes are then traded for increasing sums, with more notes added over time shilling the contents more. Eventually the boxes start turning transparent (in crypto this is through metrics/usage/adoption being seen), and people realise the truth worth of what they bought.

26/ In the speculative era the box could maybe sell for 100 dollars, in the adoption era when its transparent it can be seen that inside is just 10 dollars. Nobody is buying a box containing 10 dollars for 100 dollars if they can see the contents.

27/ The "alt game" that has gone on since 2016/17 will be over. The hands are shown. This isn't likely to be a sudden event but instead a gradual one, with sharp corrections as regulations come in.

This doesn't mean everything is going to collapse.

28/ The tokens (even your legit ones) which have a token as an excuse, they will collapse in value. Certain projects such as infrastructure of governance in which a token is required will go on, possibly maintain value and possibly even grow much larger.

29/ Will there be huge losses? Yes, but the big change that will occur in the adoption era is not about 'everything collapsing'. The big change is that the volatility will drop out. There won't be 2x,5x,10x gains happening. This game we currently do will be finished.

30/ The gains will be demand driven based on metrics.

I believe that in 5+ years time people will look back at these few years as one of the dumbest things that nerds ever did. It will be a historical event on the scale of the Dot com bubble or 2008 financial crash.

31/ A global scam whereby marketeers took advantage of the internet generation using nerds own delusions against them and had them hand over there money and speculate on junk.

Why does all this speculation happen? Because of marketing and shilling.

32/ The project, like any company is obviously going to shill a best case scenario. What they PLAN to do. Communities and shillers then build around these tokens, shilling these plans as future fact.

33/ Theres no regulations yet to reign any of this behavior in or require any transparency / reporting on metrics and usage. Its just rampant extreme speculation. Then theres crypto twitter (CT), with the likes of me and accounts much larger, shilling you "gems" and "alpha".

34/ It's all bullshit. All done using shill narratives. Selling a story on why it will go up in price.

35/ All these CT accounts are doing is buying early, then using their own accounts and networks of other CT accounts to shill you a dream scenario, getting people to believe some price action narrative and buy, causing the price to increase, giving the impression they "found it".

36/ Rather than the truth which was you made it happen by being shilled and collectively buying. The majority of large CT accounts are clueless and deluded. 99% have no idea about tech/software/blockchain. They don't know something you don't.

37/ They don't "pick winners" better than you. They are just have followers they can shill too and are networked up and get in before the shilling. Most of the shilling is coordinated across many accounts, who either got into the sale, or together bought early.

38/ This is why you will often see the same accounts all shilling the same things. Or a token suddenly being shilled out of nowhere by many. All of this has created prices which have no basis on the adoption reality. Levels of impossible success are priced in.

39/ All of it takes places using shill narratives. A story of why the price will increase. They don't know if its truly a "good project" and don't care. All they look for is "can I buy this and then tweet a believable story of why it will increase in price".