Read on Twitter
145/206
Multichain Dapps are fine.
But appchain dapps are where interoperability needs to go for a capital efficient future.
And there is probably no team I have more faith in executing on that than Compound Labs.
Multichain Dapps are fine.
But appchain dapps are where interoperability needs to go for a capital efficient future.
And there is probably no team I have more faith in executing on that than Compound Labs.
146/206
One of the only dapps we've seen structure itself in that way was Luna, and we know how that's turned out.
One of the only dapps we've seen structure itself in that way was Luna, and we know how that's turned out.
147/206
There is a huge amount of benefit and flexibility in being able to operate your own chain, and with $COMP being what will underpin validators on their appchain, it's pretty clear why there has been a lot of OTC buying for them.
There is a huge amount of benefit and flexibility in being able to operate your own chain, and with $COMP being what will underpin validators on their appchain, it's pretty clear why there has been a lot of OTC buying for them.
148/206
I'm kind of hoping the infrastructure they build out on is an Avax subnet, but regardless of how it lands, I think the COMP chain is going to melt faces given how oversold they've been.
I'm kind of hoping the infrastructure they build out on is an Avax subnet, but regardless of how it lands, I think the COMP chain is going to melt faces given how oversold they've been.
149/206
$RARE:
This thesis is simple.
There are two major auction houses in the classic art world (Sotheby's and Christie's)
They are both already aware of the growing market in NFTs and digital goods.
$RARE:
This thesis is simple.
There are two major auction houses in the classic art world (Sotheby's and Christie's)
They are both already aware of the growing market in NFTs and digital goods.
150/206
Sotheby's has been aggressively exploring this world in a way that shows they actually get it.
But as the two compete I think one of two things happens.
Sotheby's has been aggressively exploring this world in a way that shows they actually get it.
But as the two compete I think one of two things happens.
151/206
Which ever auction house is in the lead of NFT marketshare will buy a marketplace to cement that lead.
Or, the one who is lagging behind will buy a marketplace to catch up.
Which ever auction house is in the lead of NFT marketshare will buy a marketplace to cement that lead.
Or, the one who is lagging behind will buy a marketplace to catch up.
152/206
That acquisition will focus on a native NFT marketplace that most closely resembles the brand, professionalism and user set that classic auction houses have and so I think that will be $RARE.
That acquisition will focus on a native NFT marketplace that most closely resembles the brand, professionalism and user set that classic auction houses have and so I think that will be $RARE.
153/206
I think they either get bought out by, or at least a large stake acquired by one of the classic auction houses.
My guess is 2022. But may not land.
Just seems inevitable.
I think they either get bought out by, or at least a large stake acquired by one of the classic auction houses.
My guess is 2022. But may not land.
Just seems inevitable.
154/206
$SNX:
Earlier on Frax I commented that you shouldn't undercount relentless builders, or bridge builders.
SNX is both.
Dramatically oversold.
$SNX:
Earlier on Frax I commented that you shouldn't undercount relentless builders, or bridge builders.
SNX is both.
Dramatically oversold.
155/206
This year alone they dramatically increased demand, and the ecosystem is piloting like 5 new products which all use sUSD as a base.
It also integrates nicely with FixedForex so I think the KP3R boon helps drive them as well.
This year alone they dramatically increased demand, and the ecosystem is piloting like 5 new products which all use sUSD as a base.
It also integrates nicely with FixedForex so I think the KP3R boon helps drive them as well.
156/206
If even one of their ecosystem project, or partners has a breakout year then so does SNX.
They've got multiple shots lined up and so this bet is all statistics and confidence in builders.
If even one of their ecosystem project, or partners has a breakout year then so does SNX.
They've got multiple shots lined up and so this bet is all statistics and confidence in builders.
157/206
$SYN:
As I said in my main thesis, bridge infrastructure is critical and revenue matters.
Users are willing to pay Synapse because it is the best bridge between L1s and L2s.
$SYN:
As I said in my main thesis, bridge infrastructure is critical and revenue matters.
Users are willing to pay Synapse because it is the best bridge between L1s and L2s.
158/206
They need to expand their pair offerings, but I made a point to try every bridge this year.
Nothing comes close.
This is just flat out the bridge we're all going to use.
They need to expand their pair offerings, but I made a point to try every bridge this year.
Nothing comes close.
This is just flat out the bridge we're all going to use.
159/206
$GNO
Gnosis is going to be the only viable at scale MEV play from the current offerings.
And that leading offering with its own scaling network post xDAI merger is going to be pushed into every Gnosis Multisig.
$GNO
Gnosis is going to be the only viable at scale MEV play from the current offerings.
And that leading offering with its own scaling network post xDAI merger is going to be pushed into every Gnosis Multisig.
160/206
Can you think of a project worth its weight in salt that doesn't use Gnosis Multisig?
Nope.
All the biggest treasuries, best builders, and largest funds, will all have a front row seat to GNO's scaling and MEV prevention.
Can you think of a project worth its weight in salt that doesn't use Gnosis Multisig?
Nope.
All the biggest treasuries, best builders, and largest funds, will all have a front row seat to GNO's scaling and MEV prevention.
161/206
Risk-On But Potential:
This category is plays that I don't know if the will work out.
We're now in the world of a high risk potential for loses if they don't capture the market, but these products all have strong potential.
Risk-On But Potential:
This category is plays that I don't know if the will work out.
We're now in the world of a high risk potential for loses if they don't capture the market, but these products all have strong potential.
162/206
For example, we know Perps volume moves on chain. @CMSholdings has been screaming it from the roof tops for ages now!
But we don't know who wins the bulk of that market.
For example, we know Perps volume moves on chain. @CMSholdings has been screaming it from the roof tops for ages now!
But we don't know who wins the bulk of that market.
163/206
It's likely that a number of players divide up some small crumbs, but 1-2 players blow it out of the water.
As a sector, on-chain perps is set to out perform.
It's likely that a number of players divide up some small crumbs, but 1-2 players blow it out of the water.
As a sector, on-chain perps is set to out perform.
164/206
If you can divide your bets across each participant who has potential then the large gains (especially multi-year) from the winner will compensate underperformance.
Although its likely a rising tide all ships situation.
If you can divide your bets across each participant who has potential then the large gains (especially multi-year) from the winner will compensate underperformance.
Although its likely a rising tide all ships situation.
165/206
So who is in this category?
-$PERP
-$FST
-$CAP
-$MCB
-$DPX
-$HND
-$API3
-$ANGLE
So who is in this category?
-$PERP
-$FST
-$CAP
-$MCB
-$DPX
-$HND
-$API3
-$ANGLE
166/206
$PERP:
Perp had a strong lead in this space, and DyDx certainly damaged their momentum, but as I said earlier this month, I think there is a clear path to a win for them: https://twitter.com/adamscochran/status/1466048710039724036
$PERP:
Perp had a strong lead in this space, and DyDx certainly damaged their momentum, but as I said earlier this month, I think there is a clear path to a win for them: https://twitter.com/adamscochran/status/1466048710039724036
167/206
Perp really needs to execute quickly on being the long tail of the onchain futures but if they can do that with Curie (their v2) then 2022 is a breakout year for them.
Perp really needs to execute quickly on being the long tail of the onchain futures but if they can do that with Curie (their v2) then 2022 is a breakout year for them.
168/206
$FST:
Futureswap is another key futures play.
What I like about them is that they integrate directly with Uniswap V3 positions for capital efficient positions on AMMs.
Their pool simplicity could be a key driver for them.
$FST:
Futureswap is another key futures play.
What I like about them is that they integrate directly with Uniswap V3 positions for capital efficient positions on AMMs.
Their pool simplicity could be a key driver for them.
169/206
$CAP
This is 100% the underdog in this race and I love it.
I was skeptical about them at launch, but the execution from a community driven anon team has been really solid.
I don't think they take first place in perps but long upside potential.
$CAP
This is 100% the underdog in this race and I love it.
I was skeptical about them at launch, but the execution from a community driven anon team has been really solid.
I don't think they take first place in perps but long upside potential.
170/206
$MCB
MCDEX is a tough one for me. I'm 50/50 on it.
I feel its the least likely to win first place. But with the upside potential of all perps, and the quality UX investment its still worth betting on incase it does win.
$MCB
MCDEX is a tough one for me. I'm 50/50 on it.
I feel its the least likely to win first place. But with the upside potential of all perps, and the quality UX investment its still worth betting on incase it does win.
171/206
$DPX:
If someone brings options in an accessible, scalable way to mainstream audiences, then it's going to be Dopex.
They are simply the best onchain set up and UX for this.
$DPX:
If someone brings options in an accessible, scalable way to mainstream audiences, then it's going to be Dopex.
They are simply the best onchain set up and UX for this.
172/206
The Dopex play works nicely in tandem with my Ribbon bet.
Ribbon needs Dopex to scale, and Dopex likely needs Ribbon to scale, so there is strong potential here.
(Plus you know better than to bet against @tetranode)
The Dopex play works nicely in tandem with my Ribbon bet.
Ribbon needs Dopex to scale, and Dopex likely needs Ribbon to scale, so there is strong potential here.
(Plus you know better than to bet against @tetranode)
173/206
$HND
Hundred Finance is probably the earliest stage/riskiest of the assets in this category.
It only recently landed on my list and I've not started my shopping here yet.
$HND
Hundred Finance is probably the earliest stage/riskiest of the assets in this category.
It only recently landed on my list and I've not started my shopping here yet.
174/206
But it's a crosschain lending play by @vfat0 that is really early stage.
If anyone knows the inner workings of farming tokenomics is vfat and so this is one to watch.
But it's a crosschain lending play by @vfat0 that is really early stage.
If anyone knows the inner workings of farming tokenomics is vfat and so this is one to watch.
175/206
As the market recovers into the new year I plan to move a lot of capital into farming this and scaling into a position as it grows in liquidity.
As the market recovers into the new year I plan to move a lot of capital into farming this and scaling into a position as it grows in liquidity.
176/206
$API3:
Another long shot that I think has strong legs.
We do need more oracle diversity, and new types of data availability as we move into a multichain and sharded future.
$API3:
Another long shot that I think has strong legs.
We do need more oracle diversity, and new types of data availability as we move into a multichain and sharded future.
177/206
I think its easy to feel that API3 has likely under delivered, but I think they've been building a strong foundation to a complex problem.
So 2022 is a make or break year for them and I think the odds are more towards make given long infrastructure needs.
I think its easy to feel that API3 has likely under delivered, but I think they've been building a strong foundation to a complex problem.
So 2022 is a make or break year for them and I think the odds are more towards make given long infrastructure needs.
178/206
$ANGLE:
Like I've said with FixedForex, if you're an American you probably don't understand how many painpoints international users face with currency in this marketplace.
$ANGLE:
Like I've said with FixedForex, if you're an American you probably don't understand how many painpoints international users face with currency in this marketplace.
179/206
Angle aims to be like a MakerDAO but starting with a decentralized EUR.
My hunch is they expand into other currencies and have key partnerships with Convex and KP3R that cement their place.
Angle aims to be like a MakerDAO but starting with a decentralized EUR.
My hunch is they expand into other currencies and have key partnerships with Convex and KP3R that cement their place.
180/206
The only reason the are this far down the list is they've already had a strong outperform.
I think they dramatically outperform multi-year term, but would need key drivers to make it happen in 2022.
The only reason the are this far down the list is they've already had a strong outperform.
I think they dramatically outperform multi-year term, but would need key drivers to make it happen in 2022.
181/206
High Risk:
These are my 50x or go to 0 plays.
If they perform, they out perform. I expect most won't perform. This is for your absolute risk on allocations.
High Risk:
These are my 50x or go to 0 plays.
If they perform, they out perform. I expect most won't perform. This is for your absolute risk on allocations.
182/206
Who is in the highest risk boom or bust section?
-$GEL
-$NFTX
-$RAMP
-$THALES
-$PICKLE
-$BABL
-$PREMIA
-$PENDLE
Who is in the highest risk boom or bust section?
-$GEL
-$NFTX
-$RAMP
-$THALES
-$PICKLE
-$BABL
-$PREMIA
-$PENDLE
183/206
$GEL:
Smart contract automation. I think KP3R and other tech like OpenZepplin Defender gives them a run for their money, but if they can build the right libraries and integrations for any major pick up it'd be a win for them.
$GEL:
Smart contract automation. I think KP3R and other tech like OpenZepplin Defender gives them a run for their money, but if they can build the right libraries and integrations for any major pick up it'd be a win for them.
184/206
If I were them I'd focus on finding every large user of KP3R or OZ Defender and then going to that protocols competitor and getting them to use Gelato.
The enemy of my enemy kind of thing.
If I were them I'd focus on finding every large user of KP3R or OZ Defender and then going to that protocols competitor and getting them to use Gelato.
The enemy of my enemy kind of thing.
185/206
$NFTX:
Mainstream NFT adoption is likely to continue to grow.
Mainstream won't push up the cap price because they aren't buying $100k pfps.
The reason the shift tokens is through fractionalization.
$NFTX:
Mainstream NFT adoption is likely to continue to grow.
Mainstream won't push up the cap price because they aren't buying $100k pfps.
The reason the shift tokens is through fractionalization.
186/206
When 100,000 people can each over pay for one small unit, that's when retail swings prices.
NFTX gives that exposure, can basket exposure across projects and can gamify it.
If we do see CEX marketplaces cause an NFT boom, NFTX rides it.
When 100,000 people can each over pay for one small unit, that's when retail swings prices.
NFTX gives that exposure, can basket exposure across projects and can gamify it.
If we do see CEX marketplaces cause an NFT boom, NFTX rides it.
187/206
$RAMP:
I like cash driven onramps.
This is the only one with a viable token.
It's boom or bust.
$RAMP:
I like cash driven onramps.
This is the only one with a viable token.
It's boom or bust.
188/206
$THALES:
The $SNX play for the options space. Pretty solid product. Not as compelling as Dopex, but also way under priced.
$THALES:
The $SNX play for the options space. Pretty solid product. Not as compelling as Dopex, but also way under priced.
189/206
If Ribbon does boom, then it will indirectly grow all options providers. As it needs to push capital into new markets.
With how Thales is priced, its a no brainer for me to get some exposure here.
If Ribbon does boom, then it will indirectly grow all options providers. As it needs to push capital into new markets.
With how Thales is priced, its a no brainer for me to get some exposure here.
190/206
$PICKLE:
Another spot I've been unable to actually start my shopping due to low liquidity (if you know an OTC let me know)
Autostacking liquidity pools, way oversold, part of yearn eco, hasn't got a lot of love recently.
$PICKLE:
Another spot I've been unable to actually start my shopping due to low liquidity (if you know an OTC let me know)
Autostacking liquidity pools, way oversold, part of yearn eco, hasn't got a lot of love recently.
191/206
Still its a useful product and I think as we see more vaults grow, it's got a path to pop because of the low mcap and the ability to generate external revenue.
Still its a useful product and I think as we see more vaults grow, it's got a path to pop because of the low mcap and the ability to generate external revenue.
192/206
$BABL:
Infrastructure play.
I think some aspects of launch and tokenomics were underwhelming but solvable. Product UX is confusing, but the tech is solid.
$BABL:
Infrastructure play.
I think some aspects of launch and tokenomics were underwhelming but solvable. Product UX is confusing, but the tech is solid.
193/206
As we move to a more and more retail oriented world, I think wallets/interfaces like Zapper and Argent are going to look for more vault strategy style integrations for their users. Bablyon would it will there.
As we move to a more and more retail oriented world, I think wallets/interfaces like Zapper and Argent are going to look for more vault strategy style integrations for their users. Bablyon would it will there.
194/206
$PREMIA:
Least interesting of the options plays at this point in time, but still a quality product.
Given my strong thesis for Ribbon, it could outperform on the back of Ribbon's growth.
$PREMIA:
Least interesting of the options plays at this point in time, but still a quality product.
Given my strong thesis for Ribbon, it could outperform on the back of Ribbon's growth.
195/206
$PENDLE:
I love Pendle. I think it's brilliant.
I don't think most users understand what it is even trying to do, let alone how to use it.
If Pendle focuses on education and integration into vault strategy products, huge boon.
$PENDLE:
I love Pendle. I think it's brilliant.
I don't think most users understand what it is even trying to do, let alone how to use it.
If Pendle focuses on education and integration into vault strategy products, huge boon.
196/206
I made the mistake of overestimating the general financial acumen of users at their launch so they under performed my expectations.
I think there is a clear path to them capturing the growth that their product deserves in '22.
I made the mistake of overestimating the general financial acumen of users at their launch so they under performed my expectations.
I think there is a clear path to them capturing the growth that their product deserves in '22.
197/206
Possible Farming:
This category is protocols that I think are likely worth interacting with due to potential upcoming tokens, but nothing is announced yet.
Possible Farming:
This category is protocols that I think are likely worth interacting with due to potential upcoming tokens, but nothing is announced yet.
198/206
No extensive breakdown for these just the names:
-Cowswap (confirmed)
-Element Finance
-Opyn
-Cozy Finance
-Pods
-Volumex
No extensive breakdown for these just the names:
-Cowswap (confirmed)
-Element Finance
-Opyn
-Cozy Finance
-Pods
-Volumex
199/206
So there you have it.
That's my 2022 outperform and shopping list.
It is once again worth reiterating that this is *not* financial advice.
You shouldn't just ape into these and expect to win.
So there you have it.
That's my 2022 outperform and shopping list.
It is once again worth reiterating that this is *not* financial advice.
You shouldn't just ape into these and expect to win.
200/206
I tend to track assets and maintain a shopping list that I update every 3 months or so. I scale into positions and balance risks at different levels.
I'm happy to eat and hold loses long term.
This should all at best be a starting point for your own research.
I tend to track assets and maintain a shopping list that I update every 3 months or so. I scale into positions and balance risks at different levels.
I'm happy to eat and hold loses long term.
This should all at best be a starting point for your own research.
201/206
Overall, I think 2022 will be an exciting year for crypto. A rebirth of classic defi bluechips, exciting new defi models, and a number of technologies starting to cross the chasm.
Overall, I think 2022 will be an exciting year for crypto. A rebirth of classic defi bluechips, exciting new defi models, and a number of technologies starting to cross the chasm.
202/206
There are also a lot of assets not covered in this list that will do well, especially if the overall market does well. These are just my personal bets on what has an *opportunity* to *outperform*.
There are also a lot of assets not covered in this list that will do well, especially if the overall market does well. These are just my personal bets on what has an *opportunity* to *outperform*.
203/206
As a standard disclaimer, I obviously have financial interest in many/most of these tokens (or all by the time you are reading it) and have my own biases.
As a standard disclaimer, I obviously have financial interest in many/most of these tokens (or all by the time you are reading it) and have my own biases.
204/206
Hopefully you've found this thread to be helpful in terms of guiding your own research starting point and constructing how to think about evaluating projects.
Hopefully you've found this thread to be helpful in terms of guiding your own research starting point and constructing how to think about evaluating projects.
205/206
This is probably my last thread of the year, and its been a pretty wild one. With over 115 threads and over 78M tweet impressions according to Twitter Analytics, I've written a fair bit this year and I hope it's been useful in setting you up for the year to come.
This is probably my last thread of the year, and its been a pretty wild one. With over 115 threads and over 78M tweet impressions according to Twitter Analytics, I've written a fair bit this year and I hope it's been useful in setting you up for the year to come.
206/206
Here is to an exciting 2022, no matter what this crazy world may throw at us! :)
Here is to an exciting 2022, no matter what this crazy world may throw at us! :)
