Read on Twitter
The Ukrainian MoD says they struck a D-30 howitzer in the Donbas with a Turkish TB2 UCAV after two Ukrainian servicemen were wounded by artillery fire. This would be the first such use of TB2 to conduct strikes in the Donbas.
https://www.facebook.com/watch/?v=467614907881638
https://www.facebook.com/watch/?v=467614907881638
DNR rebels claim that Ukraine conducted another UAV attack on an oil facility in Donetsk this morning though they claim it didn't do any damage. 2/ https://ria.ru/20211027/neftebaza-1756450431.html
Dmitry Peskov said Turkey's deliveries of TB2 UCAVs to Ukraine could potentially destabilize the situation along the line of contract "this does not contribute to settling this intra-Ukrainian problem." 3/
https://tass.com/world/1354633
https://tass.com/world/1354633
The Head of the State Duma Committee on Defense Andrei Kartapolov said "The use of a Bayraktar unmanned aerial vehicle by the Ukrainian military (as announced by the Ukrainian General Staff) will further escalate the conflict inside Ukraine," 4/
https://tass.com/world/1354917
https://tass.com/world/1354917
Video reportedly showing T-80U tanks from the 4th Tank Division based outside of Moscow passing through Kursk near the border with Ukraine. Possibly a response to Ukraine's use of TB2 UCAVs and escalation of fighting in the Donbas. 5/ https://twitter.com/DubovoySlavyans/status/1453687231500242944
Video reportedly of the Central Military District’s 448th Missile Brigade’s Iskander-M missile systems outside of Bryansk near the border with Ukraine from October 27th. 7/
https://t.me/milinfolive/72257
https://t.me/milinfolive/72257
Video of Russian armor reportedly in Bryansk. 8/ https://twitter.com/GirkinGirkin/status/1453767800879726595
Some old T-72B tanks, some with ATGM/loitering munition roof screens, on the move reportedly in Krasnodar. 11/
https://t.me/milinfolive/72282
https://t.me/milinfolive/72282
"A renewed buildup of Russian troops near the Ukrainian border has raised concern among some officials in the United States and Europe who are tracking what they consider irregular movements of equipment and personnel on Russia’s western flank." 12/
https://www.washingtonpost.com/world/russian-troop-movements-near-ukraine-border-prompt-concern-in-us-europe/2021/10/30/c122e57c-3983-11ec-9662-399cfa75efee_story.html
https://www.washingtonpost.com/world/russian-troop-movements-near-ukraine-border-prompt-concern-in-us-europe/2021/10/30/c122e57c-3983-11ec-9662-399cfa75efee_story.html
Ukraine's Defence Intelligence said they haven't recorded any additional transfer of Russian troops or equipment near their borders. They suggested these movements are normal after training exercises. 14/ https://www.mil.gov.ua/news/2021/11/01/fakti-naroshhuvannya-zbrojnih-sil-rf-na-ukrainskomu-napryamku-e-elementom-informaczijno-psihologichnih-dij-czentr-operativnogo-informuvannya/
Hard to make out too many specifics but clearly plenty of tanks, Msta-S/2S3 Akatsiya 152mm artillery, and BMPs in these photos. 15/ https://twitter.com/trbrtc/status/1455294700605300742
General Mark Milley described Russia's movement of forces near Ukraine as "significant" but "nothing overtly aggressive." "So, what does this mean? We don't know yet," Milley said. "But we're continuing to monitor with all of our capabilities." 20/
https://www.voanews.com/a/us-not-yet-alarmed-by-russian-military-buildup-near-ukraine-/6298543.html
https://www.voanews.com/a/us-not-yet-alarmed-by-russian-military-buildup-near-ukraine-/6298543.html
CNN reports CIA Director Bill Burns was sent to Moscow this week to discuss Russia's military activities near the border with Ukraine, and "the Biden administration is more concerned than it was in the spring that Russia could launch an invasion," 21/
https://www.cnn.com/2021/11/05/politics/bill-burns-moscow-ukraine/index.html
https://www.cnn.com/2021/11/05/politics/bill-burns-moscow-ukraine/index.html
Russian Deputy Foreign Minister Sergei Ryabkov confirms that Russian officials discussed Ukraine with Bill Burns. 22/
https://www.militarynews.ru/story.asp?rid=1&nid=559902&lang=RU
https://www.militarynews.ru/story.asp?rid=1&nid=559902&lang=RU
More than a 1k crews with T-72B3 tanks from the 3rd Motorized Rifle Division completed a verification test with live-firing in Voronezh. 23/
https://www.militarynews.ru/story.asp?rid=0&nid=559896&lang=RU
https://www.militarynews.ru/story.asp?rid=0&nid=559896&lang=RU
Ukrainian soldiers watching the feed from the TB2 strike on the D-30 howitzer in the Donbas. 25/
https://t.me/milinfolive/72459
https://t.me/milinfolive/72459
Deleted my previous tweet. If this is the Maslovka in Voronezh (not Belgorod as I posted before), this is ~130km from the border with Ukraine. These are the T-80U tanks from the 4th Guards Kantemirovskaya Tank Division based in Moscow. 27/ https://twitter.com/GirkinGirkin/status/1458489303659655168
“We’re concerned by reports of unusual Russian military activity near Ukraine,” Blinken said at the conclusion of a U.S.-Ukraine strategic dialogue meeting. “Any escalatory or aggressive actions would be of grave concern to the United States.” 28/
https://apnews.com/article/william-burns-antony-blinken-ukraine-europe-russia-92eecff683cef43a4bc8f24837d83ff2
https://apnews.com/article/william-burns-antony-blinken-ukraine-europe-russia-92eecff683cef43a4bc8f24837d83ff2
Bloomberg reports that the US has told EU allies that "Russia may be weighing a potential invasion of Ukraine". Worth noting that "invasion" could mean an attempt at compellence, an attempt to seize land, or pursuit of more ambitious objectives. 30/
https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2021-11-11/u-s-warns-europe-that-russian-troops-may-plan-ukraine-invasion?s=04&fbclid=IwAR0MMCFgPV2rkTD-YqqdQs6uwDXnQCW6VXf2zD4Z6dco1af2DSAGfMUuCKY
https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2021-11-11/u-s-warns-europe-that-russian-troops-may-plan-ukraine-invasion?s=04&fbclid=IwAR0MMCFgPV2rkTD-YqqdQs6uwDXnQCW6VXf2zD4Z6dco1af2DSAGfMUuCKY
Something to keep in mind: the Biden administration would clearly cancel any in-person meeting with Putin if Russia significantly escalates in Ukraine before then. That will play a role in Moscow's use-of-force calculus. 31/ https://twitter.com/ElenaChernenko/status/1458426037503766534
One thing to note: US officials said Russia had ~80k troops near Ukraine in the spring, but Ukrainian officials said the figure was between 110-120k. So I would interpret the 90k figure from Ukrainian officials as *fewer* Russian troops are there now. 32/
https://www.nytimes.com/2021/11/10/us/politics/russia-blinken-ukraine.html?referringSource=articleShare
https://www.nytimes.com/2021/11/10/us/politics/russia-blinken-ukraine.html?referringSource=articleShare
Bloomberg reports that Putin has told Western leaders that Russia won't tolerate creeping expansion by their armed forces into Ukraine and that some European governments aren't as sure as the US that an invasion is an imminent threat. 34/
https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2021-11-12/putin-masses-troops-to-tell-nato-to-stay-out-of-ukraine
https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2021-11-12/putin-masses-troops-to-tell-nato-to-stay-out-of-ukraine
"Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskiy has said there are nearly 100,000 Russian soldiers near Ukraine's border and that Western countries had shared information about active Russian troop movements with Kyiv." 35/
https://www.reuters.com/world/europe/ukraine-says-russia-has-nearly-100000-troops-near-its-border-2021-11-13/
https://www.reuters.com/world/europe/ukraine-says-russia-has-nearly-100000-troops-near-its-border-2021-11-13/
There is clearly non-public stuff going on, but just because the current activity is less public than in the spring doesn't mean the intentions are necessarily different. If Washington and Kyiv can see this, it could still be about coercion. 36/
https://www.politico.com/news/2021/11/12/russia-ukraine-invasion-putin-521139
https://www.politico.com/news/2021/11/12/russia-ukraine-invasion-putin-521139
Putin's response when asked about Ukraine. He ended his answer with "Concurrently they arranged unscheduled drills in the Black Sea. There is an impression that they do not want to let us relax. Well, they should know that we do not relax anyway." 38/
http://en.kremlin.ru/events/president/news/67100
http://en.kremlin.ru/events/president/news/67100
"Western intelligence suggests a 'high probability of destabilization' of Ukraine by Russia as soon as this winter". Ukraine estimates Russia has 92k ground troops (presumably including VDV, naval infantry, etc.) and 114k total near Ukraine's borders. 39/
https://www.ft.com/content/d4eada1f-2849-4d3a-9c40-be797addd8cb?list=intlhomepage
https://www.ft.com/content/d4eada1f-2849-4d3a-9c40-be797addd8cb?list=intlhomepage
Another video of T-80U tanks from the 4th Guards Kantemirovskaya Tank Division as well as Msta-S howitzers in Maslovka, Voronezh. 43/ https://twitter.com/4emberlen/status/1459920195968024580
The Ukrainian MoD said they downed a Russian Orlan-10 UAV in the Donbas with electronic warfare systems. 44/
https://www.facebook.com/GeneralStaff.ua/posts/2069003006602279
https://www.facebook.com/GeneralStaff.ua/posts/2069003006602279
Sergei Shoigu was in Voronezh today to inspect troops. 45/
https://function.mil.ru/news_page/country/more.htm?id=12394053@egNews
https://function.mil.ru/news_page/country/more.htm?id=12394053@egNews
Russia's deputy ambassador to the UN Gennady Kuzmin said, "The aggressive behavior of Kyiv is growing, Western sponsors are continuously pumping weapons into it," 47/
https://tass.com/politics/1362971
https://tass.com/politics/1362971
Photos of Russian military equipment, including from the Central Military District's 41st Combined Arms Army, at Yelnya on November 9th. 49/
https://www.csis.org/analysis/moscows-continuing-ukrainian-buildup
https://www.csis.org/analysis/moscows-continuing-ukrainian-buildup
Re: the new naval agreement between the UK and Ukraine, Russian Foreign Ministry spokeswoman Maria Zakharova said, "We regard this as more evidence of Britain’s growing military activity in countries neighboring on Russia, in particular, in Ukraine," 50/
https://tass.com/defense/1362799
https://tass.com/defense/1362799
"now it is correct to say that interaction has spread to the naval sphere and weapons supplies...Instead, we can see Britain in fact encourage Kiev in its revanchist plans, which creates real risks to regional security... we are forced to...take proportionate measures." 51/
Putin: "Of course, Ukraine’s internal crisis is among the most pressing and sensitive issues for us, which has so far remained unresolved. Demonstratively, Ukraine has failed to fulfil its obligations under the Minsk Package of Measures, as well as the Normandy agreements." 53/
"it is important to energetically continue the mediation efforts in the Contact Group and the Normandy format, since there are no other international mechanisms to promote an internal Ukrainian settlement, and there is no alternative to implementing the Minsk agreements in full."
"Importantly, our Western partners are exacerbating the situation by supplying Kyiv with modern lethal weapons, conducting provocative military exercises in the Black Sea and other regions close to our borders," including strategic bomber flights 20km from Russia's borders. 55/
Putin is likely referring to a series of flights with three US B-52 strategic bombers in August and September 2020 over the Black Sea and Ukraine near Crimea. 56/ https://twitter.com/RALee85/status/1305565572198002690
"we constantly express our concerns about these matters and talk about red lines, but of course, we understand that our partners are peculiar in the sense that they have a very...superficial approach to our warnings about red lines. We remember well NATO's eastward expansion" 57/
"There have been several waves of expansion, and let’s look at where the military infrastructure of NATO is now–missile defense systems have been deployed right next to our borders in Romania and Poland. These can easily be put to offensive use with the Mk-41 launchers there" 58/
"it is imperative to push for serious long-term guarantees that ensure Russia’s security in this area, because Russia cannot constantly be thinking about what could happen there tomorrow." 59/
http://kremlin.ru/events/president/news/67123
http://en.kremlin.ru/events/president/news/67123
http://kremlin.ru/events/president/news/67123
http://en.kremlin.ru/events/president/news/67123
