The Ukrainian MoD says they struck a D-30 howitzer in the Donbas with a Turkish TB2 UCAV after two Ukrainian servicemen were wounded by artillery fire. This would be the first such use of TB2 to conduct strikes in the Donbas.
https://www.facebook.com/watch/?v=467614907881638">https://www.facebook.com/watch/...
DNR rebels claim that Ukraine conducted another UAV attack on an oil facility in Donetsk this morning though they claim it didn& #39;t do any damage. 2/ https://ria.ru/20211027/neftebaza-1756450431.html">https://ria.ru/20211027/...
В ДНР заявили об атаке украинским беспилотником на нефтебазы в Донецке

Украинские силовики совершили атаку на нефтебазу в Донецке при помощи беспилотника, взрыва не произошло по причине отказа боеприпаса, заявил представитель... РИА Новости, 27.10.2021

https://ria.ru/20211027/neftebaza-1756450431.html
Dmitry Peskov said Turkey& #39;s deliveries of TB2 UCAVs to Ukraine could potentially destabilize the situation along the line of contract "this does not contribute to settling this intra-Ukrainian problem." 3/
https://tass.com/world/1354633 ">https://tass.com/world/135...
The Head of the State Duma Committee on Defense Andrei Kartapolov said "The use of a Bayraktar unmanned aerial vehicle by the Ukrainian military (as announced by the Ukrainian General Staff) will further escalate the conflict inside Ukraine," 4/
https://tass.com/world/1354917 ">https://tass.com/world/135...
Video reportedly showing T-80U tanks from the 4th Tank Division based outside of Moscow passing through Kursk near the border with Ukraine. Possibly a response to Ukraine& #39;s use of TB2 UCAVs and escalation of fighting in the Donbas. 5/ https://twitter.com/DubovoySlavyans/status/1453687231500242944">https://twitter.com/DubovoySl...
6/ https://twitter.com/Archer83Able/status/1453752459210407951">https://twitter.com/Archer83A...
Video reportedly of the Central Military District’s 448th Missile Brigade’s Iskander-M missile systems outside of Bryansk near the border with Ukraine from October 27th. 7/
https://t.me/milinfolive/72257">https://t.me/milinfoli...
Video of Russian armor reportedly in Bryansk. 8/ https://twitter.com/GirkinGirkin/status/1453767800879726595">https://twitter.com/GirkinGir...
9/ https://twitter.com/konrad_muzyka/status/1454075749397315584">https://twitter.com/konrad_mu...
10/ https://twitter.com/mirek_szczerba/status/1454011334018875396">https://twitter.com/mirek_szc...
Some old T-72B tanks, some with ATGM/loitering munition roof screens, on the move reportedly in Krasnodar. 11/
https://t.me/milinfolive/72282">https://t.me/milinfoli...
"A renewed buildup of Russian troops near the Ukrainian border has raised concern among some officials in the United States and Europe who are tracking what they consider irregular movements of equipment and personnel on Russia’s western flank." 12/
https://www.washingtonpost.com/world/russian-troop-movements-near-ukraine-border-prompt-concern-in-us-europe/2021/10/30/c122e57c-3983-11ec-9662-399cfa75efee_story.html">https://www.washingtonpost.com/world/rus...
13/ https://twitter.com/konrad_muzyka/status/1454940481981399041">https://twitter.com/konrad_mu...
Ukraine& #39;s Defence Intelligence said they haven& #39;t recorded any additional transfer of Russian troops or equipment near their borders. They suggested these movements are normal after training exercises. 14/ https://www.mil.gov.ua/news/2021/11/01/fakti-naroshhuvannya-zbrojnih-sil-rf-na-ukrainskomu-napryamku-e-elementom-informaczijno-psihologichnih-dij-czentr-operativnogo-informuvannya/">https://www.mil.gov.ua/news/2021...
Факти нарощування збройних сил РФ на українському напрямку є елементом інформаційно-психологічних...

https://www.mil.gov.ua/news/2021/11/01/fakti-naroshhuvannya-zbrojnih-sil-rf-na-ukrainskomu-napryamku-e-elementom-informaczijno-psihologichnih-dij-czentr-operativnogo-informuvannya/
Hard to make out too many specifics but clearly plenty of tanks, Msta-S/2S3 Akatsiya 152mm artillery, and BMPs in these photos. 15/ https://twitter.com/trbrtc/status/1455294700605300742">https://twitter.com/trbrtc/st...
16/ https://twitter.com/tom_bullock_/status/1455296173040930819">https://twitter.com/tom_bullo...
17/ https://twitter.com/konrad_muzyka/status/1455642798355529733">https://twitter.com/konrad_mu...
18/ https://twitter.com/CITeam_ru/status/1455562923800252425">https://twitter.com/CITeam_ru...
19/ https://twitter.com/RuslanLeviev/status/1455584889428905985">https://twitter.com/RuslanLev...
General Mark Milley described Russia& #39;s movement of forces near Ukraine as "significant" but "nothing overtly aggressive." "So, what does this mean? We don& #39;t know yet," Milley said. "But we& #39;re continuing to monitor with all of our capabilities." 20/
https://www.voanews.com/a/us-not-yet-alarmed-by-russian-military-buildup-near-ukraine-/6298543.html">https://www.voanews.com/a/us-not-...
CNN reports CIA Director Bill Burns was sent to Moscow this week to discuss Russia& #39;s military activities near the border with Ukraine, and "the Biden administration is more concerned than it was in the spring that Russia could launch an invasion," 21/
https://www.cnn.com/2021/11/05/politics/bill-burns-moscow-ukraine/index.html">https://www.cnn.com/2021/11/0...
Russian Deputy Foreign Minister Sergei Ryabkov confirms that Russian officials discussed Ukraine with Bill Burns. 22/
https://www.militarynews.ru/story.asp?rid=1&nid=559902&lang=RU">https://www.militarynews.ru/story.asp...
More than a 1k crews with T-72B3 tanks from the 3rd Motorized Rifle Division completed a verification test with live-firing in Voronezh. 23/
https://www.militarynews.ru/story.asp?rid=0&nid=559896&lang=RU">https://www.militarynews.ru/story.asp...
24/ https://twitter.com/tom_bullock_/status/1457763243028619271">https://twitter.com/tom_bullo...
Ukrainian soldiers watching the feed from the TB2 strike on the D-30 howitzer in the Donbas. 25/
https://t.me/milinfolive/72459">https://t.me/milinfoli...
26/ https://twitter.com/KofmanMichael/status/1458111775510044673">https://twitter.com/KofmanMic...
Deleted my previous tweet. If this is the Maslovka in Voronezh (not Belgorod as I posted before), this is ~130km from the border with Ukraine. These are the T-80U tanks from the 4th Guards Kantemirovskaya Tank Division based in Moscow. 27/ https://twitter.com/GirkinGirkin/status/1458489303659655168">https://twitter.com/GirkinGir...
“We’re concerned by reports of unusual Russian military activity near Ukraine,” Blinken said at the conclusion of a U.S.-Ukraine strategic dialogue meeting. “Any escalatory or aggressive actions would be of grave concern to the United States.” 28/
https://apnews.com/article/william-burns-antony-blinken-ukraine-europe-russia-92eecff683cef43a4bc8f24837d83ff2">https://apnews.com/article/w...
29/ https://twitter.com/The_Lookout_N/status/1458734992918560768">https://twitter.com/The_Looko...
Bloomberg reports that the US has told EU allies that "Russia may be weighing a potential invasion of Ukraine". Worth noting that "invasion" could mean an attempt at compellence, an attempt to seize land, or pursuit of more ambitious objectives. 30/
https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2021-11-11/u-s-warns-europe-that-russian-troops-may-plan-ukraine-invasion?s=04&fbclid=IwAR0MMCFgPV2rkTD-YqqdQs6uwDXnQCW6VXf2zD4Z6dco1af2DSAGfMUuCKY">https://www.bloomberg.com/news/arti...
Something to keep in mind: the Biden administration would clearly cancel any in-person meeting with Putin if Russia significantly escalates in Ukraine before then. That will play a role in Moscow& #39;s use-of-force calculus. 31/ https://twitter.com/ElenaChernenko/status/1458426037503766534">https://twitter.com/ElenaCher...
One thing to note: US officials said Russia had ~80k troops near Ukraine in the spring, but Ukrainian officials said the figure was between 110-120k. So I would interpret the 90k figure from Ukrainian officials as *fewer* Russian troops are there now. 32/
https://www.nytimes.com/2021/11/10/us/politics/russia-blinken-ukraine.html?referringSource=articleShare">https://www.nytimes.com/2021/11/1...
33/ https://twitter.com/konrad_muzyka/status/1459244207424606210">https://twitter.com/konrad_mu...
Bloomberg reports that Putin has told Western leaders that Russia won& #39;t tolerate creeping expansion by their armed forces into Ukraine and that some European governments aren& #39;t as sure as the US that an invasion is an imminent threat. 34/
https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2021-11-12/putin-masses-troops-to-tell-nato-to-stay-out-of-ukraine">https://www.bloomberg.com/news/arti...
Bloomberg reports that Putin has told Western leaders that Russia won& #39;t tolerate creeping expansion by their armed forces into Ukraine and that some European governments aren& #39;t as sure as the US that an invasion is an imminent threat. 34/ https://www.bloomberg.com/news/arti...
Bloomberg reports that Putin has told Western leaders that Russia won& #39;t tolerate creeping expansion by their armed forces into Ukraine and that some European governments aren& #39;t as sure as the US that an invasion is an imminent threat. 34/ https://www.bloomberg.com/news/arti...
"Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskiy has said there are nearly 100,000 Russian soldiers near Ukraine& #39;s border and that Western countries had shared information about active Russian troop movements with Kyiv." 35/
https://www.reuters.com/world/europe/ukraine-says-russia-has-nearly-100000-troops-near-its-border-2021-11-13/">https://www.reuters.com/world/eur...
There is clearly non-public stuff going on, but just because the current activity is less public than in the spring doesn& #39;t mean the intentions are necessarily different. If Washington and Kyiv can see this, it could still be about coercion. 36/
https://www.politico.com/news/2021/11/12/russia-ukraine-invasion-putin-521139">https://www.politico.com/news/2021...
37/ https://twitter.com/konrad_muzyka/status/1459509565637148673">https://twitter.com/konrad_mu...
Putin& #39;s response when asked about Ukraine. He ended his answer with "Concurrently they arranged unscheduled drills in the Black Sea. There is an impression that they do not want to let us relax. Well, they should know that we do not relax anyway." 38/
http://en.kremlin.ru/events/president/news/67100">https://en.kremlin.ru/events/pr...
Putin& #39;s response when asked about Ukraine. He ended his answer with "Concurrently they arranged unscheduled drills in the Black Sea. There is an impression that they do not want to let us relax. Well, they should know that we do not relax anyway." 38/ https://en.kremlin.ru/events/pr...
Putin& #39;s response when asked about Ukraine. He ended his answer with "Concurrently they arranged unscheduled drills in the Black Sea. There is an impression that they do not want to let us relax. Well, they should know that we do not relax anyway." 38/ https://en.kremlin.ru/events/pr...
"Western intelligence suggests a & #39;high probability of destabilization& #39; of Ukraine by Russia as soon as this winter". Ukraine estimates Russia has 92k ground troops (presumably including VDV, naval infantry, etc.) and 114k total near Ukraine& #39;s borders. 39/
https://www.ft.com/content/d4eada1f-2849-4d3a-9c40-be797addd8cb?list=intlhomepage">https://www.ft.com/content/d...
"Western intelligence suggests a & #39;high probability of destabilization& #39; of Ukraine by Russia as soon as this winter". Ukraine estimates Russia has 92k ground troops (presumably including VDV, naval infantry, etc.) and 114k total near Ukraine& #39;s borders. 39/ https://www.ft.com/content/d...
"Western intelligence suggests a & #39;high probability of destabilization& #39; of Ukraine by Russia as soon as this winter". Ukraine estimates Russia has 92k ground troops (presumably including VDV, naval infantry, etc.) and 114k total near Ukraine& #39;s borders. 39/ https://www.ft.com/content/d...
40/ https://twitter.com/USEmbassyKyiv/status/1459960640831959045">https://twitter.com/USEmbassy...
41/ https://twitter.com/konrad_muzyka/status/1459977363073253383">https://twitter.com/konrad_mu...
42/ https://twitter.com/KofmanMichael/status/1460063497145004034">https://twitter.com/KofmanMic...
Another video of T-80U tanks from the 4th Guards Kantemirovskaya Tank Division as well as Msta-S howitzers in Maslovka, Voronezh. 43/ https://twitter.com/4emberlen/status/1459920195968024580">https://twitter.com/4emberlen...
The Ukrainian MoD said they downed a Russian Orlan-10 UAV in the Donbas with electronic warfare systems. 44/
https://www.facebook.com/GeneralStaff.ua/posts/2069003006602279">https://www.facebook.com/GeneralSt...
Sergei Shoigu was in Voronezh today to inspect troops. 45/
https://function.mil.ru/news_page/country/more.htm?id=12394053@egNews">https://function.mil.ru/news_page...
Sergei Shoigu was in Voronezh today to inspect troops. 45/ https://function.mil.ru/news_page...
Sergei Shoigu was in Voronezh today to inspect troops. 45/ https://function.mil.ru/news_page...
Sergei Shoigu was in Voronezh today to inspect troops. 45/ https://function.mil.ru/news_page...
46/ https://twitter.com/haynesdeborah/status/1460835907880243203">https://twitter.com/haynesdeb...
Russia& #39;s deputy ambassador to the UN Gennady Kuzmin said, "The aggressive behavior of Kyiv is growing, Western sponsors are continuously pumping weapons into it," 47/
https://tass.com/politics/1362971">https://tass.com/politics/...
48/ https://twitter.com/CSBiggers/status/1461064701778055176">https://twitter.com/CSBiggers...
Photos of Russian military equipment, including from the Central Military District& #39;s 41st Combined Arms Army, at Yelnya on November 9th. 49/
https://www.csis.org/analysis/moscows-continuing-ukrainian-buildup">https://www.csis.org/analysis/...
Photos of Russian military equipment, including from the Central Military District& #39;s 41st Combined Arms Army, at Yelnya on November 9th. 49/ https://www.csis.org/analysis/...
Photos of Russian military equipment, including from the Central Military District& #39;s 41st Combined Arms Army, at Yelnya on November 9th. 49/ https://www.csis.org/analysis/...
Photos of Russian military equipment, including from the Central Military District& #39;s 41st Combined Arms Army, at Yelnya on November 9th. 49/ https://www.csis.org/analysis/...
Photos of Russian military equipment, including from the Central Military District& #39;s 41st Combined Arms Army, at Yelnya on November 9th. 49/ https://www.csis.org/analysis/...
Re: the new naval agreement between the UK and Ukraine, Russian Foreign Ministry spokeswoman Maria Zakharova said, "We regard this as more evidence of Britain’s growing military activity in countries neighboring on Russia, in particular, in Ukraine," 50/
https://tass.com/defense/1362799 ">https://tass.com/defense/1...
"now it is correct to say that interaction has spread to the naval sphere and weapons supplies...Instead, we can see Britain in fact encourage Kiev in its revanchist plans, which creates real risks to regional security... we are forced to...take proportionate measures." 51/
52/ https://twitter.com/DrRadchenko/status/1461112812214837249">https://twitter.com/DrRadchen...
Putin: "Of course, Ukraine’s internal crisis is among the most pressing and sensitive issues for us, which has so far remained unresolved. Demonstratively, Ukraine has failed to fulfil its obligations under the Minsk Package of Measures, as well as the Normandy agreements." 53/
"it is important to energetically continue the mediation efforts in the Contact Group and the Normandy format, since there are no other international mechanisms to promote an internal Ukrainian settlement, and there is no alternative to implementing the Minsk agreements in full."
"Importantly, our Western partners are exacerbating the situation by supplying Kyiv with modern lethal weapons, conducting provocative military exercises in the Black Sea and other regions close to our borders," including strategic bomber flights 20km from Russia& #39;s borders. 55/
Putin is likely referring to a series of flights with three US B-52 strategic bombers in August and September 2020 over the Black Sea and Ukraine near Crimea. 56/ https://twitter.com/RALee85/status/1305565572198002690">https://twitter.com/RALee85/s...
"we constantly express our concerns about these matters and talk about red lines, but of course, we understand that our partners are peculiar in the sense that they have a very...superficial approach to our warnings about red lines. We remember well NATO& #39;s eastward expansion" 57/
"There have been several waves of expansion, and let’s look at where the military infrastructure of NATO is now–missile defense systems have been deployed right next to our borders in Romania and Poland. These can easily be put to offensive use with the Mk-41 launchers there" 58/
"it is imperative to push for serious long-term guarantees that ensure Russia’s security in this area, because Russia cannot constantly be thinking about what could happen there tomorrow." 59/
http://kremlin.ru/events/president/news/67123
https://kremlin.ru/events/pr... href=" http://en.kremlin.ru/events/president/news/67123">https://en.kremlin.ru/events/pr...
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