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ST trade: multiple purchases this week in #AVCT, av. 169p. Separate from core LT hold.
'Bad' news (i.e. slower build up in manufacturing capacity than envisaged by most; no commercial orders yet) now out of the way; potential for major and frequent positive news flow ahead. 1/12 https://twitter.com/MylesMcNulty/status/1407275892758487040
'Bad' news (i.e. slower build up in manufacturing capacity than envisaged by most; no commercial orders yet) now out of the way; potential for major and frequent positive news flow ahead. 1/12 https://twitter.com/MylesMcNulty/status/1407275892758487040
Worst case scenario for #AVCT is that it'll sell 3m to 5m LFTs a month from August, for the next 3 years. That'll be £3m to £5m gross profit per month.
With clinical trials now commencing, assume annual cash burn increases to c.£30m.
Worst case then: @avacta is now free... 2/12
With clinical trials now commencing, assume annual cash burn increases to c.£30m.
Worst case then: @avacta is now free... 2/12
...of funding concerns that constantly plague Biotech PLC - for the foreseeable.
Best case? #AVCT will be selling 60m+ LFTs per month by December (or maybe much sooner). £60m+ gross profit per month - for 3 years or more.
But much more importantly for the investment case:
3/12
Best case? #AVCT will be selling 60m+ LFTs per month by December (or maybe much sooner). £60m+ gross profit per month - for 3 years or more.
But much more importantly for the investment case:
3/12
Affimers have now been proven in diagnostics. Yes, it took an age for #AVCT to get its LFT developed and CE Marked; but the time taken to do so has ensured that the first ever commercialised, Affimer-based IVD just so happens to be the best of its kind in the world.
4/12
4/12
It blows its competition - which are almost all monoclonal antibody based - out of the water.
And @avacta just so happens to hold the global patent for Affimers in IVDs for another 12+ years.
#AVCT's LFT is also the first product in its branded range of Affimer-based IVD...5/12
And @avacta just so happens to hold the global patent for Affimers in IVDs for another 12+ years.
#AVCT's LFT is also the first product in its branded range of Affimer-based IVD...5/12
...products: "AffiDX".
This product range - if the next few products (launches scheduled in 2022/23) achieve the same global-first-in-class status as the #COVID19 LFT - is going to become one of the most sought after brands in the world by the Diagnostics majors.
6/12
This product range - if the next few products (launches scheduled in 2022/23) achieve the same global-first-in-class status as the #COVID19 LFT - is going to become one of the most sought after brands in the world by the Diagnostics majors.
6/12
The @avacta investment case is founded on that exclusive right over Affimers for the long-term. They were, after all, specifically engineered by @Tomlinson_lab and colleagues to overcome the limitations of monoclonal antibodies.
That is why I am absolutely convinced that... 7/12
That is why I am absolutely convinced that... 7/12
...the investment has been largely derisked in recent weeks. Of course, there'll be plenty of volatility along the way (as we've just been grimly reminded of!) - but #AVCT is now on the path to becoming a serious player in the Diagnostics world.
Personally, I see the... 8/12
Personally, I see the... 8/12
...Diagnostics division achieving a valuation of (many?) multiples of #AVCT's current mkt cap of £435m. It could take 3 years, it could take 3 months.
Either way, the commercial launch of such a high quality LFT has made that target valuation - for me - an inevitability. 9/12
Either way, the commercial launch of such a high quality LFT has made that target valuation - for me - an inevitability. 9/12
That leaves investors with what is essentially a free carry on @avacta's Therapeutics division (albeit funded by the cash generated by the Diagnostics division!).
And by now I think that everyone is well aware that the Therapeutics div could completely dwarf the... 10/12
And by now I think that everyone is well aware that the Therapeutics div could completely dwarf the... 10/12
...Diagnostics div in value, in the longer-term.
Chemotherapy without the side effects. If animal data are replicated in man this year, the pre CISION technology could multiply the size of the $60bn per annum global chemo market by several times. Need I say more?
11/12
Chemotherapy without the side effects. If animal data are replicated in man this year, the pre CISION technology could multiply the size of the $60bn per annum global chemo market by several times. Need I say more?
11/12
reflect that.
