Last Feb, during the leadership contest, I sent this prediction to a colleague in LOTO.

It has largely played out, but it hasn’t been cost-free & the right’s project is now imperilled. That means they need to get on with the bit they haven’t done - changing the leadership rules

Starmer’s leadership is a Blairite project. Those around him - Ward, Nunn, McSweeney, Evans, Mandelson - are hardcore ideological Blairites. Starmer is now a liability to them, but if they ditch him they’ll lose the party to Rayner - or even, in an open contest, to the left.

They’re stuck with Starmer and unlikely to win an election unless the government entirely fails. So what will they do? They only thing they’re really able to do - attack the left and entrench their control of the party.

I would expect them to move to proscribe Momentum, accelerate expulsions of left wing members, marginalise trade unions and - the big one, probably after they win control of Conference Arrangements Committee - change the leadership election rules to privilege MPs over members.

The left isn’t powerless. This scenario can be stopped by organising and working with trade unions. There’s even the potential for this years conference to reject the appointment of Starmer’s general secretary, David Evans. That would be pretty funny.