Given some feedback on my Tweets, I think I need to clarify a few points here.

First, I'm not just some wacky paranoid lib that thinks the GOP is setting up to overturn the 2024 election. Article by Bush-conservative Mona Charen

Definitely not a lib 1/n https://thebulwark.com/the-real-steal-is-coming/

If the GOP abuses powers granted in the constitution to overturn the election, that had previously been protected by democratic traditions of fairness (certifying elections), the DoD will not step in, even if its clearly a steal. They'll leave it to the courts. 2/n

The US military has a very long tradition of trying to remain apolitical, and staying out of partisan politics. There's no way they step in as long as the autocratic attempt remains peaceful, and consists of abusing political norms and exploiting laws. 3/n

Will SCOTUS intervene? Maybe, maybe not. Its a wild card, but as long as the GOP is primarily using rules exploits and violating unwritten norms, this textualist court may be inclined to let it ride and assume that future voting will take care of the problem (it won't). 4/n

Is it all over? No, not yet. 2022 mid-terms and 2024 congressional races will be crucial. But, we could see attempts to "steal" the election in gerrymandered state legislatures in states like NC, PA, WI, FL, and GA. 5/n

Will the GOP claim fraud in 2024 if they get a result they don't like? Almost certainly. They're clearly purging anyone who doesn't endorse the narrative that the 2020 election was decided by fraud. They're promoting the "big lie". 6/n

Thus, I suspect that if they don't legitimately win in 2024, it will be political suicide for most Republicans to go against claims that 2024 was "rigged" as well. There's going to be extreme pressure to produce a win, any way they can. 7/n

So, how do they win? Certainly not by winning the popular vote: even with an incredibly unpopular candidate like Hillary dems still won that. The GOP is trying a mix of voter suppression to eke out an EC win like 2016, and barring that, simply overturning it. 8/n

They'll have opportunities to overturn the election at the local (think, Michigan county election commissioners), state (legislatures, board of canvassers), and Federal (House, Senate). It's going to be even harder in 2020 for a Biden/Harris win to survive that gauntlet. 9/n

Will protests help? Potentially, before the issue is decided permanently. If state and local legislators are worried about what happens if they vote to end democracy in the US, some may hesitate. In states with heavy gerrymandering, though, they're immune to blow back. 10/n

~85% of House members are in seats that are considered "safe," so they're more or less immune to public opinion. It might be enough to swing a few key votes if it's close. Still, 68% of House Republicans voted to overturn the election on Jan 6th, and it'll get worse by 2025. 11/n

Will it sway SCOTUS? Potentially yes, if they think the country burns to the ground or definitely splits if they issue a ruling that overturns the clear will of the people. They're not quite as oblivious as they seem sometimes. (Roberts, Gorsuch). 12/n

Will protests have an effect once the GOP has seized power, and the court sided with them?

Nope. That's classic competitive authoritarianism. At that point they simply don't care, because nothing will remove them from power again. 13/n

Am I encouraging fatalism?

No. Resist tooth and nail, every step of the way.

But I am warning people that there WILL be another autocratic attempt. It may succeed, and to plan accordingly for what comes after. 14/n

If we reach that point where the election has been overturned, the courts signed off on it, that's a point of no return for the US. Don't let us get there, because that's clearly where we're headed. Vote, don't let the GOP eke out an EC win, or reclaim Congress. 15/n