1. So what now in Gaza and Israel? This is the same pattern we have seen for the past 15 years and are likely to see again. We wrote about it in a report @cnasdc put out on Gaza more than 2 years ago and little has changed. https://www.cnas.org/publications/reports/ending-gazas-perpetual-crisis

2. Hamas used the situation in Jerusalem to pick up political support internally especially in the aftermath of scrapped Palestinian elections. And to apply pressure on israel and to loosen the blockade. That is why it picked this fight. It’s why it always picks these fights.

3. Israel responds with force to degrade Hamas’s capabilities, try to deter it, and to demonstrate to its own population that it is doing something.

4. Eventually when the sides are ready for a ceasefire it is facilitated primarily by the Egyptians and also UNSCO, who are the two parties with the most regular and direct ties with both sides.

5. Israel and Hamas agree to stop and the Gaza Strip gets some temporary marginal economic relief while both sides claim victory. The international community pledges to do more but quickly pivots to other priorities.

6. Eventually the situation deteriorates again and something causes a new explosion.

7. The big question is, how long does it go before both sides find a way to climb down? This is very complicated. In 2014 neither side expected nor wanted the conflict to go for 50 days. But once it starts it’s hard to stop. Hopefully this one will calm quickly.

8. The second is what happens elsewhere give the intense frustration and escalation around Jerusalem, Israeli political deadlock, and recently cancelled Palestinian elections.

9. Will the West Bank remain calm? What will happen in Jerusalem? What about protests in Arab communities inside Israel? These are unknowns that might make this particular conflict different with different long-term implications. Only time will tell

10. There are no easy solutions but there are ways to put the conflict on a better trjectory as we laid out In our reports on both Gaza and more recently on a new US policy towards the conflict. https://www.cnas.org/publications/reports/a-new-u-s-strategy-for-the-israeli-palestinian-conflict