THREAD: Now that there are smart, respectable people coming out against continuing use of the AstraZeneca vaccine it's worth noting all of their analysis is a purely individualistic cost/benefits analysis, and why that's a huge problem. 1/

Their arguments go something like: some data shows the risk of clots isn't 1:1 million, or 1:100,000 anymore, it's more like 1:25,000-50,000. So IF you're not in a hotspot, and IF you're young, your odds of dying from COVID are relatively low, why not wait for a Pfizer jab? 2/

There ends the analysis. But there are two systemic issues they don't seem to account for: one is the number of new cases caused by having hundreds of thousands, if not millions, defer for weeks to get vaccinated, and how many deaths result from *that*... 3/

Two: how abandoning the 'take the first shot you can get' framing, and incautious discussion of risk (NACI's 'preferred vaccine' language) risks leading to vaccine hesitancy *generally*. 4/

It will be DISASTROUS if society-wide vaccine hesitancy spikes. The difference between our current intent-to-vaccinate numbers and some US states might be the difference between herd immunity and a return to normal and more of the last year. 5/5 Fin.