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I just imbibed the entire 79 page "Triple Halving" report.
Apart from eating, going for a post-lunch surf and laying in a catatonic state on my couch, I did nothing else today but read this.
Here are my thoughts, as much for my own mental digestion as anything else... https://twitter.com/SquishChaos/status/1387074095007817730
Apart from eating, going for a post-lunch surf and laying in a catatonic state on my couch, I did nothing else today but read this.
Here are my thoughts, as much for my own mental digestion as anything else... https://twitter.com/SquishChaos/status/1387074095007817730
1/x
The fundamental assumption of the report is that we don't encounter any black swans. Things need to continue to go smoothly for crypto, especially re government inaction.
We talk a lot about how governments can/can't ban Bitcoin or Ethereum or...
The fundamental assumption of the report is that we don't encounter any black swans. Things need to continue to go smoothly for crypto, especially re government inaction.
We talk a lot about how governments can/can't ban Bitcoin or Ethereum or...
2/x
What have you, but I don't know that they need to. What if governments said, large institutions cannot invest in crypto lest you get fined or licenses revoked.
What if all crypto gains are taxed at 3x the normal rates, because crypto heads are...
What have you, but I don't know that they need to. What if governments said, large institutions cannot invest in crypto lest you get fined or licenses revoked.
What if all crypto gains are taxed at 3x the normal rates, because crypto heads are...
3/x
Anti-social anti-woke degens. Or some such. Governments don't need to ban crypto, they could just increase the barriers to adoption and that would be enough to kill massive price gains.
You won't get to $150,000 ETH by tapping Uncle Freddy and Aunt Matilda...
Anti-social anti-woke degens. Or some such. Governments don't need to ban crypto, they could just increase the barriers to adoption and that would be enough to kill massive price gains.
You won't get to $150,000 ETH by tapping Uncle Freddy and Aunt Matilda...
4/x
So the report assumes no black swans.
It assumes Ethereum remains the dominant smart contract platform and does not continually lose market share to something like Polkadot.
It assumes (based on Justin Drake's projections) a 25% staking yield...
So the report assumes no black swans.
It assumes Ethereum remains the dominant smart contract platform and does not continually lose market share to something like Polkadot.
It assumes (based on Justin Drake's projections) a 25% staking yield...
5/x
That seems high to me, like something that would get arbitraged away rather quickly, but who knows?
One interesting aspect of the "arbitrage" is that the more people stake, the more demand for ETH, the less liquid the supply, so even if...
That seems high to me, like something that would get arbitraged away rather quickly, but who knows?
One interesting aspect of the "arbitrage" is that the more people stake, the more demand for ETH, the less liquid the supply, so even if...
6/x
Staking profits go down in percentage terms, profits in $$$ value could still rise. That's pretty interesting.
The report takes scaling for granted without acknowledging that both sharding and L2 scaling have issues, mainly interoperability...
Staking profits go down in percentage terms, profits in $$$ value could still rise. That's pretty interesting.
The report takes scaling for granted without acknowledging that both sharding and L2 scaling have issues, mainly interoperability...
7/x
"Money legos" is what makes DeFi so epic, but the scaling solutions being proposed and already implemented break that composability to some extent.
Can we find solutions? I would assume so, however, I don't think it's quite fair to just take...
"Money legos" is what makes DeFi so epic, but the scaling solutions being proposed and already implemented break that composability to some extent.
Can we find solutions? I would assume so, however, I don't think it's quite fair to just take...
8/x
Scaling for granted. As it's probably not fair to take an ETH ETF for granted, which the report rather seems to.
We don't even have a Bitcoin ETF and nobody can say for certain when one is coming. It's not absurd to say we'll have ETH ETF in the next 12 months, but...
Scaling for granted. As it's probably not fair to take an ETH ETF for granted, which the report rather seems to.
We don't even have a Bitcoin ETF and nobody can say for certain when one is coming. It's not absurd to say we'll have ETH ETF in the next 12 months, but...
9/x
I don't think it's even close to a done deal either. A 50/50 chance, maybe?
OK. So to summarize my bear case on the report,
*Assumption that governments take no regulatory action against crypto, especially as it relates to large financial institutions investing...
I don't think it's even close to a done deal either. A 50/50 chance, maybe?
OK. So to summarize my bear case on the report,
*Assumption that governments take no regulatory action against crypto, especially as it relates to large financial institutions investing...
10/x
*Assumption of high staking yield
*Assumption of perfect scaling, when current scaling tech has downsides
*Assumption of ETH ETF
OK. Having said all of that, my final conclusion is this...
*Assumption of high staking yield
*Assumption of perfect scaling, when current scaling tech has downsides
*Assumption of ETH ETF
OK. Having said all of that, my final conclusion is this...
11/x
I really liked it!
The report totally forced me to rethink how Ethereum could work as an investment, what the case for trying to time the top is, how the ETH/BTC relationship could break, how flows work in a market and why...
I really liked it!
The report totally forced me to rethink how Ethereum could work as an investment, what the case for trying to time the top is, how the ETH/BTC relationship could break, how flows work in a market and why...
12/x
Staking is so important in regard to the long term valuation of Ethereum.
It was absolutely worth devoting an entire day to reading and thinking about the triple halving.
Could it happen? One thing that I think Mr. Squish could have clarified a bit more is that...
Staking is so important in regard to the long term valuation of Ethereum.
It was absolutely worth devoting an entire day to reading and thinking about the triple halving.
Could it happen? One thing that I think Mr. Squish could have clarified a bit more is that...
13/x
The base case is a stable valuation of between $30-$50k ETH, while the 150k ETH is only a blow off top projection and the assumption is that it would quickly correct.
OK.
So two years from now could we be looking at ETH that's hanging around $40k? It...
The base case is a stable valuation of between $30-$50k ETH, while the 150k ETH is only a blow off top projection and the assumption is that it would quickly correct.
OK.
So two years from now could we be looking at ETH that's hanging around $40k? It...
14/x
Sure sounds like a lot, but I'll say this. I read the BitcoinTalk forums in 2011 and I'll never forget it
BTC was at $3 at the time and the forum users who were projecting an $8 BTC were ridiculed. Such a valuation was viewed as obscene and "everyone would just dump..."
Sure sounds like a lot, but I'll say this. I read the BitcoinTalk forums in 2011 and I'll never forget it
BTC was at $3 at the time and the forum users who were projecting an $8 BTC were ridiculed. Such a valuation was viewed as obscene and "everyone would just dump..."
15/x
"Their Bitcoin if it went that high."
Crypto has a way of surprising us to upside. That's the dirty little secret that rational investors don't like to mention.
Clear-headed investors spout off "reasonable" targets when the entire history of crypto is a history of...
"Their Bitcoin if it went that high."
Crypto has a way of surprising us to upside. That's the dirty little secret that rational investors don't like to mention.
Clear-headed investors spout off "reasonable" targets when the entire history of crypto is a history of...
16/x
Ostensibly unreasonable price spikes. In Bitcoin's lifetime, the person who has made the most outlandish predictions has been right the most often.
So I'm not sure if we can get to $30-$50k ETH. I think you have to take account of the...
Ostensibly unreasonable price spikes. In Bitcoin's lifetime, the person who has made the most outlandish predictions has been right the most often.
So I'm not sure if we can get to $30-$50k ETH. I think you have to take account of the...
17/x
Risk factors I mentioned in the beginning of this thread.
But at the same time, I wouldn't ever be the person to say it's impossible.
Thank you @SquishChaos for the excellent report. I thoroughly enjoyed reading it and I have a feeling that...
Risk factors I mentioned in the beginning of this thread.
But at the same time, I wouldn't ever be the person to say it's impossible.
Thank you @SquishChaos for the excellent report. I thoroughly enjoyed reading it and I have a feeling that...
18/18
By the time this is all over, you will have helped me to make money.
By the time this is all over, you will have helped me to make money.
