OK some Big Thoughts on (specifically) English politics I've been brewing over the past week that I'll try to convey in some kind of comprehensible format. >

We* made a huge mistake in thinking Brexit was an isolated, discrete issue and once it was 'done' it would be over. Brexit was never a separate battle, it was just one front in the ongoing culture war of English politics. >

* OK, Me. Maybe you too.

I said often over past 5 years that the Tories would bottom out on 40% - 45% until the Brexiters had their Brexit, after which things might begin to return to normality. This was wrong. It was not true & never going to happen. >

It is not the case that around half the country coalesced around the Tories to get Brexit done. Instead, around half the country coalesced around both Brexit *and* the Tories because around half the country is deeply committed to one side in the neonationalist culture war. >

What is that war? On one side, post-Empire cocktail of national isolationism, various degrees of ethno-nationalism, social conservatism, rampant nostalgia and a sense of betrayal, sense that a country which should be working for PEOPLE LIKE THEM is not serving PEOPLE LIKE THEM. >

On the other side of the culture war is what we could call the modern liberal left - metropolitan, internationalist, pro-multiculturalism & anti-racist, socially liberal etc - ie everything labelled by the other side as 'woke.'

Our entire political system & culture has always assumed there are 2 bottom lines to politics:

1/ It all comes down to class interests in the end, and
2/ It's the economy, stupid.

BUT NEITHER OF THESE IS TRUE ANY MORE.

If it was about the economy, no one would have voted Brexit. If it was about class, we wouldn't see... well, look around, anywhere.

IT'S THE CULTURE WAR, STUPID!

The neonationalist right is roughly evenly spread through working class & middle class populations. From the most impoverished North East pit towns to the Kent & Surrey commuter belt. >

The radical progressive left is supported by the lowest paid gig economy workers, inner city BAME communities, and by university professors, doctors, public sector workers, tech industries, etc etc etc.

Some of the other the simplistic binaries under discussion (graduates vs non-graduates; Cities v Towns) are more meaningful, but still not the full story. So where does this leave us? My conclusion:

The main reason the Tories are absolutely battering Labour at the moment, and will continue to do so for the foreseeable, is that everyone knows which side of the Great 21st Century culture war the Tories are on. Nobody knows which side Labour is on. Not even Labour.

Labour is both historically & instinctively supportive of the progressive side, but has convinced itself that the only way to win is with the votes of the reactionary side. But people on that side know full well their hearts aren't in it, not the way the Tories are.

Meanwhile, with every desperate grab for some of those juicy reactionary votes, Labour further alienates those who *should be* on their side.

In brief, there's a fckn great pitched battle going on and the Labour party is refusing to pick a side & is instead standing in no-man's land getting strafed & bombarded from both sides.

Like I say, these thoughts are a work in progress and I welcome your views.