We are still in the early stages of a growth/tech sell off where people are quoting lower T+ 1-3yr forward multiples.

Overlooked is that earnings can also go down - precipitously. In a bust it's common for earnings to drop 50% or more, as supply starts to overtake demand.

Software/tech/thematic growth is not immune from forces of competition & too much capital chasing too little revenue (some companies will be, but they are the minority).

A majority of stocks in hyped sectors will probably see earnings fall 50-100% and/or book losses.

Revenue is inflated by covid and is coming off a high base, while markets are starting to saturate. Meanwhile, there has never been more money raised to chase these thematic growth opportunities. Earnings are going to collapse & losses mushroom.

Instead of raising capital at higher and higher valuations, you'll see more companies have to raise money at lower and lower valuations, leading to catastrophic dilution. SBC dilution will also significantly increase as market capitalizations fall.

People always underestimate how bad it will get, and for how long. Stocks are priced like we are still early-stage in various digital growth thematics, when we are actually already quite late stage. Top line growth is going to radically decelerate starting from this year.

This will likely happen even if inflation doesn't start printing 5%+. If it does the bust will likely easily be as bad/worse than 2000-03. Broader markets will likely fall at least 20-30% if inflation prints 5%+, but growthy sectors/stocks will probably fall 80%.