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1/ I know #BTC 
’s PA is testing the patience of many, w/a lot of handwringing, doubt, envy, regret and all other manner of negative emotions creeping in, but it’s important to put the current PA in perspective. TL;DR: It’s well within the range of normal PA during a bull run.
’s PA is testing the patience of many, w/a lot of handwringing, doubt, envy, regret and all other manner of negative emotions creeping in, but it’s important to put the current PA in perspective. TL;DR: It’s well within the range of normal PA during a bull run.
2/ To wit, look at the longest stretch during this halving cycle where price languished before finally putting a previous ATH permanently in the rearview mirror. The stretch started last summer (Aug 17) and lasted 64 days (until Oct 20).
3/ I’m NOT suggesting the same scenario will unfold now, but to contextualize the current malaise, IF it took 64 days to put the current ATH behind us, chop would persist until mid-June (June 16) before we would finally put the current ATH permanently in the rearview mirror.
4/ Fine, you say, but it has been almost THREE MONTHS of sideways trading since first hitting $56K. Surely THAT is unprecedented, correct? Nope. As shown, there was a 125-day stretch (from right before the halving on May 10 until Sep 9) where price traded sideways.
5/ Extrapolating a similar sideways stretch from the point at which $56K was first reached on Feb 21 and what date do you arrive at? June 26, which incidentally is quite close to the June 19 date extrapolated for the longest stretch between ATHs.
6/ So, what does this mean? Absolutely NOTHING re: future price predictions or the timing of an eventual breakout. However, what it does illustrate is that the rangebound PA we’re experiencing is completely normal even during the bull phase of a #BTC halving cycle.
halving cycle.
7/ And for those lamenting their decision to sell (or not buy), e.g., #ETH instead? Trust me when I say that being invested in #ETH has not been all peaches and cream either. People just have short-term and/or selective memories.
8/ To wit, look at this stretch last Fall, where #ETH had an 80-day stretch of sideways trading. It wasn’t until Nov 20 that #ETH finally put its previous ATH (on Sep 1) permanently in the rearview mirror. And then look what happened…
9/ Since that point, #ETH ripped 260% higher, retraced 26%, and then started on its current tear, up another 100% in the past three weeks alone.
My point is this: for those envying #ETH investors at the moment, note that patience was rewarded, but only in spurts.
My point is this: for those envying #ETH investors at the moment, note that patience was rewarded, but only in spurts.
10/ The same is true for #BTC investors, and it will be again. But one must be invested during the choppy times to avoid missing the epic surges. As @ecoinometrics has shown ( https://twitter.com/ecoinometrics/status/1390351766756093954?s=20), it is simply too costly to FOMO in after a run begins.
investors, and it will be again. But one must be invested during the choppy times to avoid missing the epic surges. As @ecoinometrics has shown ( https://twitter.com/ecoinometrics/status/1390351766756093954?s=20), it is simply too costly to FOMO in after a run begins.
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