also maybe consider how many people unvaccinated kids can infect (and how many those people infect, and so forth) compared to 2.4% with severe fatigue because it’s a pandemic

also should probably subtract the 0.4-0.7% fatigue in the placebo groups

varicella and mumps vaccines, off the top of my head

you know what else is unprecedented

what about the low but known vaccine failure rate and the estimated 3-4% of immune compromised adults plus all the people who can’t get vaccinated for whatever reason

phase 3 placebo arms:

Pfizer:
162 cases / 21,728
=0.7%

Moderna:
185 cases / 15,210
=1.22%

so even without considering the intervention arm the max ARR is <1.6%…